Muslims constitute 9.67 percent of the population in Gujarat. The share of Muslim voters is 15 percent in 34 assembly seats in the state and 20 percent or more in 21 assembly seats. Four seats in Ahmedabad, three each in Bharuch and Kutch areas are considered Muslim-majority. Congress has been winning most of these seats due to the outright vote of Muslim voters. But this time the parties of Arvind Kejriwal and Asaduddin Owaisi are also present in the fray as contenders for Muslim votes. Since, the last time BJP candidates lost in these Muslim majority seats by a very small margin of votes, if there is a split in Muslim votes, the BJP may benefit from it, and it may also win Muslim majority seats.
Muslim candidates won by how many votes
In the last Gujarat assembly elections of 2017, the Congress had fielded six Muslim candidates, out of which four Muslim candidates won. Sheikh Ghiyasuddin of Congress got 63,712 votes from the Dariyapur assembly seat. He defeated BJP candidate Bharat Barot by a margin of only 6,187 votes. Bharat Barot got 57,525.
Congress's Peerzada Mohammad Javed Abdul Mutalib got 72,588 votes from the Wankaner seat. He defeated BJP's candidate Jitendra Kantilal Komani by a margin of only 1361 votes who got a total of 71,227 votes. Similarly, from Dasda seat, Congress candidate Naushadji Balaji Bhai got 74,009 votes. He defeated BJP candidate Ramlal Ishwarlal Vora by a margin of only 3728 votes who got 70,281 votes.
Among Muslim candidates, Imran Yusuf Bhai got the biggest victory from Jamalpur Khadia. He got 75,346 votes. He defeated his nearest rival BJP candidate Ashok Bhatt Bhushan by 29,339 votes. Bhatt got 46,007 votes. Two other Muslim candidates of the party had to face defeat. The BJP had not given a ticket to a single Muslim candidate.
Since BJP candidates were defeated in all these seats due to very less votes, it is believed that if there is a division of Muslim votes in these seats, then BJP can get its benefit and its candidates will also win these Muslim majority seats. can achieve.
Will Owaisi spoil the game of Congress?
Asaduddin Owaisi's party All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is planning to contest 40 to 50 seats in Gujarat this time. The party has so far declared its candidates for three seats in Ahmedabad and two seats in Surat.
Local elections were held in Gujarat in February last year. AIMIM had won 26 seats in these elections. This includes seven seats in Ahmedabad, a Muslim-dominated area, six in Godhra, nine in Modasa, and one in Bharuch. With the growing popularity of Owaisi among Muslims, it is believed that his candidates can get good votes in the assembly elections as well. But this can be a direct loss to Congress, which has been winning many seats on the strength of these votes.
Gopal Italia alleged
Aam Aadmi Party's Gujarat President Gopal Italia has alleged that BJP and AIMIM party leaders are in touch with each other. Based on a report published in a newspaper, he claimed to have met BJP Mayor of Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation Kirit Parmar, BJP leader Dharmendra Shah and AIMIM Gujarat state president Sabir Kabaliwala on October 19. The meeting took place at AIMIM's Ahmedabad office. He has asked by tweeting what is this relationship called.
When how many Muslim candidates won
In the 1990 Gujarat assembly elections, two Muslim candidates won. One in 1995, five in 1998, three in 2002, five in 2007, two in 2012, and four in the last assembly elections in 2017 had won four Muslim candidates. Ahmed Patel was the last Muslim MP from Gujarat. At present, there is not a single Muslim MP in the 26 Lok Sabha seats of Gujarat.
The distance between Muslim voters and from BJP is decreasing
Muslim voters are said to vote strategically. They vote for only that party or candidate who is capable of defeating BJP candidates. But this has been proved wrong in the context of Gujarat. CSDS figures show that in the last assembly elections, about 20 percent of Muslim voters had voted for the BJP. BJP leader Amit Shah also admits that he gets the support of Muslim voters as well.
The 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 and 2022 UP assembly elections also indicate that the BJP is no longer an untouchable party for Muslim voters. In such a situation, it will be interesting to see where will the trend of Muslim votes be in the Gujarat Assembly elections.
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