Even though Bihar's general life is in crisis due to flood and corona epidemic, the politics-related groups have come out in the electoral game here. Now only three months are left for the elections related to the formation of the upcoming Bihar Legislative Assembly. The Election Commission has issued a 'Guideline' to conduct elections safely.
Here, it seemed from the stand of the ruling coalition, that is, the Janta Dal United (JDU) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that elections will not be postponed, they will be held in time. Therefore, activities like frost changing, manipulations, or different types of equations have been accelerated. This has been happening often during every election.
In politics, giving up principles and keeping self-interest paramount is no longer a deplorable thing. Now, considering the elections that are going to be held in Bihar, Nitish Kumar's party JDU is looking more active than other parties here. It is busy dealing with the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) within its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) outside.
The BJP's attitude to some extent, especially in the context of LJP, is keeping the JDU skeptical. Chirag Paswan, the young head of the LJP, has been an attacker on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar for some time and the BJP has not stopped him.
Rift in NDA ...
Make it clear here that despite being part of NDA, JDU is not a partner in Central Government, similarly, LJP is not a partner in Bihar Government.
This situation sometimes gives a glimpse of inner distance or rift in these three parties of NDA. Secondly, the BJP, which is high in the center but slow in Bihar, wants to get rid of the pain of 'Nitish Kumar's hanger', but cannot speak openly.
Ram Vilas Paswan's party LJP is already apprehensive that the JDU-leadership would like to slide it to the margins to grab a larger share at the time of seat-sharing. In such a situation, the BJP will have to cut its share and force the LJP to keep it together. It could also be a reason that BJP is not trying to stop Chirag Paswan from putting pressure on JDU. Or it is possible that JDU and BJP together have adopted a strategy to control the increased demand for Chirag.
I am saying this because the top leadership of the BJP would not want to hit Chirag's back by getting angry with Nitish Kumar. The reason is that the Nitish-love of the leader whose dominance over the BJP has been known for many years is well known. I do not see the same weight in this discussion or possibility that BJP can form a government in the state if they contest elections, except Nitish and taking LJP along.
Tips from removing Article 370 to the construction of Ram temple, where are there any visible signs of being effective in favor of BJP in Bihar?
For the time being, living with Nitish Kumar, there seems to be a scope for the BJP to get the benefit of emotional issues also, because there is no such wave in Bihar as it is wiping out the caste equation.
Another discussion is going on these days in the electoral context itself. There are allegations that the Nitish government has failed to prevent the Corona epidemic, to save Bihari workers from the crisis, and to prevent flood relief. Due to this, JDU may have to bear the brunt of this in the coming elections.
But here the question arises that how can the BJP in the coalition government of the state consider itself free from such failures? State Health Minister Mangal Pandey is from BJP quota and he has been accused more.
JDU-BJP's mutual competition
On the other hand, before the elections, Nitish Kumar has made organizational preparations like JDU and has transferred/posted in the bulk of officers, it is clear from him that JDU is trying to dominate BJP.
BJP does not seem to be able to dominate Nitish Kumar this time in the distribution of electoral seats. It may be that Nitish brings some softness in his attitude to resolve the issue of LJP.
By the way, because of Chirag Paswan's adversary, Nitish Kumar has decided to associate Jitan Ram Majhi, the leader of 'Hum' party and former Chief Minister with his party. Majhi has separated himself from the grand alliance of RJD, Congress, and some other small parties.
Jitan Ram Manjhi's politics has been turbulent for the last several years.
He could not keep himself stable or satisfied in the NDA nor the RJD-Congress Grand Alliance. In the case of electoral seats or other wishes, where things did not happen, moved away from there. Even in the case of Janadhar or public support, Majhi was not able to prove that the person he joined had the political power to get electoral benefits (votes of Dalit society).
Now that the JDU must have felt the need for a prominent Dalit face in this election, it is trying to bring Majhi along by forgetting the last gimmick.
Split in the Grand Alliance
JDU has meanwhile broken up from RJD and added many MLAs / former MLAs. Among them, the name of Chandrika Rai, son of Lalu Prasad Yadav and son of former Chief Minister Daroga Prasad Rai is the most prominent.
The marriage of Lalu Yadav's elder son Tej Pratap with Chandrika Rai's daughter Aishwarya Rai has reached a state of breakdown after a family dispute. Annoyed with the Lalu family, Chandrika Rai has announced to join hands with Nitish Kumar to teach RJD a lesson. Now the situation of Chandrika Yadav may not be very effective against the penetration of Lalu Yadav and his son Tejashwi Yadav in the Yadav society of Bihar, but it is a shock to the RJD.
On the other hand, when Shyam Rajak, a minister in the Nitish government, left the JDU and joined the RJD, it was said that the defections would harm the RJD and the JDU. While it has been seen that the possibility of ticket cuts or opportunistic defection associated with the possibility of getting tickets at the time of elections does not have much impact on public opinion.
But yes, when a big leader with a support base and his party joins with any other party, then only he can influence the election results.
This time the defections in Bihar can be considered as seasonal jumps. The initial tussle between the RJD and the Congress about the seat-sharing is coming, there is no apprehension about the break-up of the two's alliance, but Upendra Kushwaha and Mukesh Sahni's parties are disappointed.
How many seats can these two small parties get, it will be clear only after the coordination between the RJD and the Congress.
Whose pan will be heavier
By the way, the current political situation of the state is indicating that organizational strength, nationalistic emotional issues, and favorable power can go to the power of the ruling party to a great extent.
Whereas, on issues like non-fulfillment of basic needs, an increase in bribery and crime, education, and health / medical related mismanagement, the attitude of the masses can be towards the opposition. It is also believed that the new ways of conducting elections in the time of Corona crisis will bring more resources to the BJP-JDU alliance because other small parties including RJD, Congress and Left parties will hardly be able to compete against them in this regard.
Lack of electoral solidarity between leftist parties in Bihar has been seen for many years. On the other hand, the scattering generated among the general voters based on caste hatred also leads to the defeat of good candidates.
one more thing. The issue that the state's ruling coalition has raised, 'Fifteen years of Lalu-Rabri regime vs. fifteen years of Nitish government', will be ineffective in my understanding.
The reason is that some aspects of both the reigns are bright, and some aspects have been very tainted. Many good works were done in both the reigns, so many bad things have also been done. Both the parties take long lists against each other and continue in the electoral field, such lists will not have any effect on the victims of the electorate.
Effective things will come out of the same weaknesses of the people, which in fifteen to fifteen years, as the strength of the voters, they are not able to do anything.
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