The rural economy of the country is making a comeback. According to a report by American financial company Morgan Stanley, such a picture is emerging from indicators such as employment, loan offtake, vehicle sales, and trade. Morgan Stanley said in a report that we believe that rural demand in India is going to increase. This is being helped by the full opening of markets, reforms in the labor market, and improved business conditions in rural areas.
The report also said that apart from rising food inflation since the beginning of the current financial year (April), the Indian rural economy was also affected by the second wave of the COVID pandemic. However, the situation has improved rapidly in the last few months.
After 12 months of sluggishness, the situation improved from 3 months
According to Morgan Stanley, the rural economy has been returning to normalcy for the last three months. Earlier, there were signs of a slowdown in the rural economy for 12 consecutive months. Our overall rural activity tracker is showing improvement for the past 3-4 months, the report said.
Four key indicators: Unemployment down, exports up
Unemployment decreased: According to a report by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CNIE), the unemployment rate in the country remained at an 8-month low during September.
Two-wheeler sales: More than 11 lakh two-wheelers were sold in the country last month. This is the largest number of two-wheeler sales since pre-Covid i.e. October 2020.
Agricultural loans: As per RBI data, the offtake of agriculture loans increased by 13.4% in August. Never before has the Agri loan growth been this much in the last 9 months.
Agricultural exports: The export of agricultural commodities from the country grew by 27.5% in the financial year 2022-23 till September. Despite this, restrictions were imposed on the export of wheat and rice in the meantime.
The rural economy is getting stronger due to these four main reasons
With the increase in the recruitment of employees in the organized and unorganized sectors, less skilled villagers have also started getting jobs.
Due to the normalization of industrial activities in the country, now money has started coming from urban areas to rural areas. This has increased the demand.
Wages for agricultural and non-farm workers rose in August. This led to an increase in consumption in rural areas.
Since the start of the pandemic, the government has spent 3.3 percent of its GDP in rural areas. This is slightly higher than the pre-covid level.
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