Where will the Russian attack on Ukraine lead, the opinion of experts

Posted on 3rd Mar 2022 by rohit kumar

The war between Ukraine and Russia has now reached its eighth day. Russian forces are constantly trying to capture Ukraine's capital Kyiv and all other cities.

 

The Russian army continues to attack Ukraine's second-largest city Kharkiv, targeting several government buildings. There are reports of a cruise missile attack on the city council building of the same city.

 

It is believed that aggression from Russia may increase in the coming days, due to which both sides may suffer the heavy loss of life and property.

 

To stop this war, all countries including America, Germany, Britain are imposing economic sanctions on Russia and its allies.

 

Due to these sanctions, there has been a huge fall in the currency of Russia. But till now it is not clear how effective these economic sanctions will prove to be in stopping the war.

 

The BBC has tried to find answers to these questions by talking to former Army Chief General VP Malik and Indian Ambassador to the US Meera Shankar in a special program based on the Ukraine crisis.

 

Was anything wrong with the Russian troops?

 

Before the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, it was believed that Russia could get an easy victory in this war.

 

But after the passing of seven days of the war, now this opinion seems to be changing.

 

General VP Malik says on Russia's military strategy, initial advance, and then its decline in speed -

 

"Putin and the Russian army launched a vigorous military campaign for the first three days, after which they lost their momentum. There may be two reasons for this, one reason may be that they understood that by then the President of Ukraine Zelensky Will lay down arms. The Ukrainian army will lay down arms, which did not happen.

 

After this Ukraine got an opportunity to reorganize its forces. Help also started coming from other countries, due to which their morale also increased. I think it was the fault of the Russian army that they gave up their momentum after three or four days.

 

They will now have to suffer a lot because of this mistake. At this time the morale of the Ukrainian army is very high. They are getting help. They have reorganized themselves once again, especially in the cities. In cities, the fighting conditions are always bad, in which the defending side gets more advantage. There is also a delay in this. The loss of life and property is also more.

 

But it is important to say here that Russia has lost the Perception Battle, that is, the war in the eyes of the people. With this, it will have a lot of trouble in conquering Ukraine, especially Kyiv and other cities."

 

How long will a military war last?

But the question arises that how long will the military war between Russia and Ukraine last.

 

This question is important because recent news is coming about Russian military convoys moving towards Ukraine.

 

Along with this, it is also believed that there may be an increase in aggression from Russia in the coming days.

 

According to General VP Malik, Perception Warfare or psychological warfare is also a part of the strategy.

 

he says -

 

“Nowadays, the importance of persuasion and psychological warfare is increasing. The Russian forces are indeed very powerful and the Ukrainian army cannot compete with them.

 

But Russia will face many difficulties in achieving its political objective, that is, to remove the President of Ukraine and to drive out his forces. No matter how many troops you bring, the armies inside the city do not want to fight.

 

But now it seems that Russian forces will have to move inside the city, especially Kyiv. The Ukrainian army has fewer weapons but they have anti-tank weapons like the Javelin 80 GM. Along with this, there are anti-aircraft weapons like Stinger missiles. Due to this, they will suffer a lot. In such a situation, this fight will go on for a long time and the loss of life and property will be huge from both sides."

 

Are economic sanctions not effective in stopping war?

 

From America to Britain, many countries have imposed strict sanctions on Russian banks, industries, and businessmen. And as the war progresses, the level of sanctions from these countries also seems to be increasing.

 

The Russian currency is recording a sharp decline. But despite this, there are no signs of decreasing Russian aggression.

 

In such a situation, the question arises whether these sanctions will prove to be effective in stopping the war. From Europe to America, many people are questioning the effectiveness of these restrictions.

 

We spoke to Meera Shankar, the Indian Ambassador to the US on this issue.

 

Meera Shankar believes that the announcements made by European countries on this issue should not be considered mere rhetoric.

 

Meera Shankar says on this issue -

 

America and European countries have imposed very strict economic sanctions on Russia. Even before you see, even when the Cold War was going on, the US and NATO never directly challenged Russia or the Warsaw Pact in Europe. This increases the risk of a nuclear war breaking out.

 

In other countries, in developing countries, in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, their proxy wars did go on. But there has never been a direct military confrontation in Europe.

 

Still, the same thing is going on. But this time America has already prepared very tough economic sanctions. And also told that if Russia invades Ukraine then we will impose these economic sanctions. This time America got success in uniting Europe behind them.

 

Initially, Germany did not want to impose such stringent sanctions. America also had a target on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which was about to start. America wanted it to be banned. Earlier Germany did not want this. But later Germany itself suspended it. America has also imposed restrictions on Nord Stream 2.

 

If you look at the long term, the energy dependence of Europe on Russia will be reduced. These economic sanctions will also have a great impact on Russia. The ruble has already fallen by thirty percent. Many Russian banks have been banned from the Swift system.

 

The reserves (assets) of the Central Bank of Russia kept in foreign banks have been frozen. Russian people now have to pay 20 percent interest in their bank because people were panicking and withdrawing money from the bank. To prevent this, interest rates have been increased.

 

Many companies cooperating with Russia in the field of energy, such as British Petroleum, are emerging from there. In such a situation, I think that Russia will have to face problems. But it should also be seen with context. I think the US and the West ignored the legitimate security concerns Russia had. And lost the chance to stop the war.

 

And as far as the effect of economic sanctions on this war is concerned, it cannot be said right now that they can be effective in ending the war. Because the war is progressing more rapidly and it cannot be said that these sanctions will end the war."