4-5 times deadlier than Omicron Delta: 16 lakh cases are expected daily at the peak of the third wave, there will be 40 thousand hospitalizations every day

Posted on 4th Jan 2022 by rohit kumar

Omicron's entry in India took place on 2nd December and within a month, the cases have increased to more than 1700. Due to this, the rate of corona infection in the country has increased almost three times in a week.

 

The concern about Omicron is that it is spreading rapidly, but people infected with it have less severe symptoms. The severe symptoms may be less, but the high number of patients is a warning bell for us. According to estimates, 40-60 thousand patients may need to be hospitalized during the peak of the third wave. This can create a new challenge for our health infrastructure.

 

Understand, what trend is the data on hospitalizations due to Omicron pointing in different countries? How fast is Omicron spreading? And how big a threat is Omicron to us, despite the low number of serious patients?

 

First, let's understand the data of different countries related to hospitalization

 

Britain

 

The UK Health Security Agency analyzed 5,28,176 Omicron and 5,73,012 Delta cases. It revealed that compared to Delta, only a third of the people in Omicron had to be admitted to the hospital. Regarding the effect of the vaccine on Omicron, the agency had said that after taking 2-3 doses of the vaccine, there is an 81% reduction in hospitalization. Also, the number of patients with ventilators due to Omicron is also less compared to Delta.

 

America

 

The worrying thing in America is that the hospitalization rate among children is high here. As of December 28, 378 children in the 0-17 age group had to be hospitalized. This is 66% compared to the previous week and more than the peak of the second wave caused by Delta. However, despite hospitalization being high, severe symptoms are few.

 

South Africa

 

The National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) has announced the Delta and Omicron cases found in South Africa from April to November. According to this, the risk of serious symptoms in people admitted to hospital due to Omicron is up to 30% lower than Delta.

 

Serious patients may be less than Omicron, but the number of patients is worrying.

 

There is one good and one bad thing about Omicron. The good thing is that most of the patients infected with it do not have serious symptoms. The bad thing is that Omicron is spreading 4-5 times faster than Delta. If we compare Omicron with Delta, then at the peak of the third wave, up to 16-20 lakh new cases can come in a day. The thing to understand for us is that even though severe symptoms may be less in patients, but the number of patients is also a matter of concern in itself. As the number of patients increases, in the same proportion, the number of serious patients will also increase.

 

During the peak of the second wave, about 4 lakh new cases were coming to India every day. Of these, about 25 thousand had to be admitted to the hospital. It is believed that due to Omicron, up to 16-20 lakh new cases can come daily, and out of these 40-60 thousand will have to be hospitalized. You had already seen the condition of health facilities when 25,000 people had to be hospitalized. When there is a need to hospitalize 40-60 thousand people, then the situation can be dire.

 

At present, fewer cases of Omicron are coming in government figures, but experts believe that the number of infected can be up to 18 thousand. Since genome sequencing is required to detect the variant and there are fewer labs for this in India, due to this the testing is also being reduced and the data is also coming down. Whereas in reality, they are much more.

 

Omicron is spreading very fast. The first 2 cases were detected in India on 2 December. After that, in a month, about half of the total cases are coming due to Omicron.