In the 1985 assembly elections of Gujarat, Congress had created such a history, which to date no one has been able to break it. Contesting the elections under the leadership of Madhav Singh Solanki, the Congress had won 149 seats in the 182-seat assembly. No other team has reached even near this figure so far. The Congress itself had managed to win 141 seats before that i.e. in the 1980 elections. But if everything goes well, the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi can break this record this time. Arvind Kejriwal can play the biggest role in his victory and is being told as the biggest rival of BJP in Gujarat at this time.
The results of the Uttarakhand and Goa assembly elections held in February this year show that the BJP won in these states with a margin of almost the same percentage of votes as Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party. Electoral arithmetic says that had the Aam Aadmi Party not been in these electoral frays, these votes would have gone to Congress and it could have formed the government in these states.
What is the situation in Gujarat?
Political experts believe that even in the Gujarat assembly elections, situations like Uttarakhand and Goa are visible. If the Aam Aadmi Party gets stronger here and it also manages to cut five to seven percent of votes of the Congress, then this division of votes will directly benefit the BJP and it may be able to win a big victory. BJP is already in a strong position here due to the popularity of PM Modi. His government formation is also considered almost certain, but this time there is a debate on how much his margin of victory can be.
Political analyst Sunil Pandey told Amar Ujala that the situation that seems to be happening so far, the Aam Aadmi Party seems to be cutting the votes of the Congress itself. While the BJP has still maintained its hold on its core voters. Because of the PM, another large voter class is also mobilizing with the BJP in the name of 'Gujarati Asmita'. Even after trying a lot, Kejriwal does not seem to be successful in breaking this voter class.
He said that amidst the talk of Congress's weak preparedness, there is confusion among the voters who voted for non-BJP parties. This is the reason why Kejriwal can attract the voters of Congress fast. The stronger the Aam Aadmi Party in Gujarat, the greater will be the division among the non-BJP voters and it will directly benefit the BJP. With this, Modi's dream of creating a new history in Gujarat can come true.
Focus on these seats
The BJP won more than two dozen seats in the 2017 assembly elections with a margin of fewer than 10,000 votes. In 83 seats where BJP candidates had to face defeat, the margin of defeat of BJP candidates in more than 30 seats was only two thousand to 10 thousand votes. Among them, Saurashtra and South Gujarat have the highest number of seats. If there is a division among the non-BJP voters in these seats, it will benefit the BJP and its road to victory will become easier. This is sure to increase the number of his seats.
what happened in goa
The BJP won the Goa assembly elections held in February this year. The BJP got 33.3% of the votes in this election. Congress got 23.5% of the votes. Congress got 9.8 percent fewer votes than the BJP. While Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party got 6.8 percent and Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (AITC) got 5.2 percent votes in the same election.
It can be assumed that if there was no Aam Aadmi Party or Trinamool Congress in this election, then the priority of these voters as a non-BJP party would have been Congress and it could have easily won Goa.
what happened in Uttarakhand
Earlier this year, assembly elections were held in five states along with UP and Uttarakhand. The BJP got 44.3 percent of the votes in this election, while the Congress came second with 37.9 percent of the votes. Congress got 6.4 percent fewer votes than the BJP. But Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party, who was trying its luck for the first time in this election, got 3.3 percent and Bahujan Samaj Party got 4.82 percent votes.
It can be assumed that if Arvind Kejriwal had not tried his hand in this election, the voters who wanted to vote for a non-BJP party would have preferred the Congress. In such a situation, the election result of the state could have been different. If Kejriwal strengthens as expected, a similar result can come in the Gujarat elections as well, which can benefit the BJP.
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