Haryana Election: The exam is over... now wait for one day; anything can happen in the 30 seats where the contest is tough

Posted on 7th Oct 2024 by rohit kumar

After the voting on 90 seats of Haryana was over, the countdown started for the formation of a new government in the state. Most exit polls have predicted a clear majority for the Congress. While the Congress is excited after this indication of returning to power in Haryana after ten years, the tussle for the post of Chief Minister has also started.

 

On the other hand, calling the exit polls baseless, the BJP claims to be strongly involved in the race for power for the third time. The BJP says that the results on October 8 will be surprising. The state's major regional party INLD is also hoping for improvement compared to the last election.

 

In the 2019 assembly elections, INLD was reduced to only one seat, this time it is expected to get three to five seats with its old vote bank. At the same time, the Janata Jannayak Party (JJP), which became the kingmaker in the last election, is facing a crisis of survival. The Aam Aadmi Party, which formed the government in Delhi and Punjab, is also nowhere to be seen in the race.

 

The factionalism of Jats and Dalits will play an important role in Congress's victory.

If exit poll trends are to be believed, factionalism of Jat, Sikh, Muslim, and Dalit votes will play an important role in Congress' return to power. Some votes of OBC and general category can also come in Congress' share. Learning from the mistakes of the previous elections, Congress presented the party as a party of 36 communities (all castes of Haryana) from the very beginning.

 

Congress's biggest strength is the mobilization of Jat votes. Former CM Bhupendra Singh Hooda did not let this vote bank get divided among regional parties by showing himself as a strong Jat leader. Congress also tried to defeat BJP's strategy of Dalit card by including BJP's Dalit leader Ashok Tanwar 48 hours before the elections.

 

Congress is also benefiting from the resentment against BJP regarding the farmers and wrestlers movement and Agniveer's plan. Bhupendra Singh Hooda, excited by the exit polls, said that people have voted in favor of Congress given the achievements of his government and the failures of BJP.

 

On Saini's claim of forming the government for the third time, he said - he is a shop of lies. On JJP leader Dushyant Chautala's claim that the key to power will remain with him, Hooda said - on October 8, it will be known that he has lost the key.

 

BJP still hopeful

 

Ignoring the exit polls, the BJP is still hopeful. The basis of its hope is OBC, a general category and the beneficiary vote bank of the government. The party says that if there was an anti-incumbency wave against the government, the vote percentage would have increased, but this time there is a decline of about one percent in the voting percentage.

 

On the claim of BJP's cadre vote not coming out of the house, the party says that this time the party workers have worked harder than in the 2019 elections. The party's booth management has been successful. The party claims that there are more than 30 such seats where there is a direct contest between BJP and Congress. The margin of victory or defeat on these seats will be very less and anything can turn around.

 

At the same time, the BJP is also eyeing independent candidates. Six such independent candidates are looking strong in the elections. At the same time, CM Naib Singh said - Based on the reports that are coming to him since the end of the voting, I can say with confidence that we are going to form the government for the third time.

 

At the same time, BJP state president Mohan Lal Baroli said - Our workers have worked very hard. Based on the report that has come to him, there is no doubt or apprehension at all. We are going to form the government for the third time 100 percent. He said that we work on the ground and we have full faith in our report.

 

JJP's vote bank shifts to Congress and INLD

JJP, the kingmaker of the last election, is visible in the exit poll. In the 2019 elections, JJP got about 14.9 percent votes. It played an important role in forming the BJP government for the second consecutive time in the state. Experts say that last time the Jats had chosen JJP as the third option. The 14.9 percent of votes received by JJP have shifted to Congress and INLD. The alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party did not have any significant effect.

 

INLD will get more seats than last election

 

Almost all exit polls have predicted three to five seats for the INLD-BSP alliance. In the 2019 elections, INLD got 2.5 and BSP got 4.2 percent votes. INLD got only one seat. This time INLD is getting eight to ten percent votes due to some vote bank of BSP and JJP. Because of this, it can get three to five seats. INLD leader Abhay Singh Chautala said - their figures have always been wrong.

 

This time they will be proved wrong again. Exit polls had also come for Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, in which Congress was shown winning, but BJP formed the government. He confidently said that the election results would be in favour of the INLD-BSP alliance, BJP, and Congress would not get an absolute majority in Haryana and his role would be that of a kingmaker in forming the government.

 

AAP's Delhi-Punjab-like miracle did not work in Haryana

 

Exit polls are indicating that the Aam Aadmi Party's broom did not work in Haryana. Fighting alone in Haryana has harmed the party. Voters have turned away from the party due to the absence of a local face for the CM post. In the last election, the party contested 46 seats. Its deposit was forfeited on all seats and it got only 0.5 percent votes.