Morgan Stanley On Indian Economy: Indian Economy has come out of its bad phase. And from Retail Inflation to Trade Deficit, will gradually decrease in the coming days. Financial services company Morgan Stanley has said these things in its report.
Morgan Stanley's Chief India Economist Upasana Chhachha has said in her note that commodity prices were stable except for crude oil in July. However, there has been a fall in the prices of crude oil. He said that the era of macro-volatility for India has now been left behind. Inflation and trade deficit will gradually decrease. Upasana Chhachha said that the retail inflation rate is estimated to be 7 to 7.2 percent in August 2022. It may remain at 7 percent in September, after that it will decline. He wrote in his note that the fall in commodity prices and the decision to reduce excise duty on petrol and diesel will help in improving the trade balance.
However, in July, the retail inflation rate has been 6.71 percent. This is equal to the RBI's estimate for the current financial year 2022-23 but higher than the RBI's tolerance level of 6 percent. For the past seven months, the retail inflation rate has remained above the RBI's tolerance level. The government has given a target of keeping the inflation rate at 4 percent to the RBI by March 2026, which includes a 2 percent up-down margin.
Crude oil prices have fallen by 8 percent in July. So in August, crude oil has come to the level of $ 92 per barrel, due to which there can be a big relief on the inflation front in the coming days. If there is a fall in the inflation rate, the pressure on the RBI to raise interest rates will be less.
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