Owaisi's bet in Uttar Pradesh elections, whose game will he spoil and whose will he make?

Posted on 8th Feb 2022 by rohit kumar

"Yesterday Modi government said Owaisi will give you Z category security. We said that we have never taken security, nor will we ever take it ever since we entered politics.

 

Remember Modi Ji, Yogi Ji, by giving security to Owaisi, if you do not give security to Pehlu Khan, Junaid, Rakbar, and Akhlaq, then what is the use of my security?

 

You make India's poor from minority society, Muslims, Dalits, backward as A category citizens, I want their share, our fight is of share. ,

 

A day after the attack on himself, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) President and Lok Sabha MP from Hyderabad Asaduddin Owaisi said this to the people of Uttar Pradesh at an election rally.

 

His car was attacked on 4 February while returning from Meerut to Delhi in UP, after which his discussion has increased in the Uttar Pradesh elections.

 

 

Status of AIMIM in Uttar Pradesh Elections

 

AIMIM claims that they will contest 100 seats in UP. Till 6 February, they have released a list of 72 candidates.

 

On one hand, there is talk of an attack on Asaduddin Owaisi and on the other hand, the party's spirits are high after winning five seats in the last assembly elections in Bihar.

 

Party MP from Aurangabad seat Syed Imtiaz Jalil says that he has taken inspiration from BJP to fight on 100 seats.

 

He said, "Till a few years ago, BJP had only two MPs. Today they have more than 300 MPs. In the last five years, we have worked hard in Uttar Pradesh, among the people. And now people are understanding how minorities are marginalized, dreams are shown, but they do not participate in politics. They are not given positions.

 

In 2017 also AIMIM contested the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. He had fielded his candidates on 38 seats. In many seats, the security of their candidates was forfeited. In 12 Vidhan Sabhas, their candidates came fourth, while in one seat their candidates came second. These figures are from the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

 

In last year's panchayat elections also, he had won about 20 seats.

 

Talking about the states, his party has MLAs in Telangana, Maharashtra, and Bihar.

 

CSDS professor and political analyst Sanjay Kumar said that Owaisi's party had got five seats in Bihar, but that victory was not the party's but the victory of those candidates.

 

He says, "Apart from those five seats, the vote percentage of AIMIM in other seats, they did not get even 4-5 percent votes. They were five strong candidates who fought from their party and won the elections. In the same way. He is hitting the beats in the UP elections, but I don't think there is any possibility for his party in UP."

 

According to the CSDS data, the vote share of AIMIM in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections was 0.24 percent. That is less than 1 percent.

 

demand share of power

 

According to the 2011 census data, out of the 200 million population of Uttar Pradesh, 40 million are Muslims. That is about 20 percent of the population.

 

This time in UP, AIMIM is making the power-sharing of Muslims/minorities an important issue.

 

Ever since AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi has announced to contest of elections in Uttar Pradesh, he has been talking about it continuously.

 

In September last year, he had accused the BJP that the dropout rate of Muslim students in education was 60 percent. What did the UP government do for this? In 2017-18, 6 lakh houses were distributed under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, out of which only 10 are Muslims. 1600 crores were allocated for minorities under MSDP, out of which only 16 crores were spent.

 

However, BJP leader and Union Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi claim that 31% of the 2 crore people who have got the benefit of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana are minorities. Of the 12 crore farmers who got the benefit of Kisan Samman Nidhi, 33 percent are minorities.

 

One thing to be noted here is that Asaduddin Owaisi was speaking in the context of Uttar Pradesh whereas Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi in ​​the national context.

 

Senior journalist Ramdutt Tripathi admits that the Muslims of Uttar Pradesh feel politically alienated and disillusioned with it during the BJP rule.

 

In a conversation he said, "Muslims also need political participation. They are not too happy with the role of the opposition so far. In such a situation, Owaisi is trying to expand his party in Uttar Pradesh. Muslims A section of the fraternity is also getting attracted to him. But his party's organization in the state is not strong and he does not have a huge mass base. Because of this, he is not getting that kind of support. Yes, from the issues he is raising. Minority communities share a difference, but they also have a concern that they should not waste their votes.

 

Questioned AIMIM MP Syed Imtiaz Jaleel on the claims made from all sides.

 

He said, "BJP is not doing any favor or favor by giving anything to the minorities in government schemes. When we are talking about the stake, they are talking about political participation. With our vote, you will rule, power. You will sit in me, but we will not have any participation? We need participation in Parliament and Vidhan Sabha because all the decisions are taken here. In 2012, we had 62 MLAs in the UP Vidhan Sabha, which has now been reduced to 23, why after all?

 

When Syed Imtiaz Jalil says this, he is pointing towards the opposition parties.

 

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is not known for fielding minority candidates anyway. Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party, and Samajwadi Party have been fielding comparatively more Muslim candidates.

 

Will votes prove to be 'bitter' for the opposition?

So will the coming of the AIMIM field divide the votes of the opposition parties? And will it benefit BJP?

 

In response to this question, Imtiaz Jalil says, "This allegation is leveled against us by the opposition parties. There is no basis for this. I can tell this by giving the example of my parliamentary seat. I represent the Aurangabad parliamentary seat. Before me, The minorities there used to vote for Congress and NCP. But when AIMIM entered the field for the first time, our party won. We defeated the 25 years old parties. That is, if the minorities get united, then they can also make MPs and MLAs. as well."

 

However, in the context of Uttar Pradesh, Professor Sanjay Kumar does not seem to agree with this argument.

 

Professor Sanjay Kumar says based on his assessment, "Muslim voters in UP are looking very focused this time. The enemies of both Muslims and Jat are the same at present and that is BJP. This time Muslim vote is not going to be divided. Answer The Samajwadi Party has been getting around 50 percent of the Muslim vote in the state. Once it has got even above 60 percent. This time I estimate around 75 percent of the Muslim vote is going to the Samajwadi Party. In the remaining 25 percent, AIMIM, BSP, Congress, and other parties can get it. AIMIM's serious vote-bitter will be proved when it takes vote share between 8 to 12 percent. It is not yet visible in this election."

 

At the same time, senior journalist Ramdutt Tripathi says, "It is clear from the results of Bihar that if AIMIM gets some seats in UP like Bihar, then BJP will come to power again through the back door. Because of this, Uttar Pradesh's Muslims are scared this time. Muslims have doubts about Mayawati too. The way she has fielded her candidates, a perception has been created that BJP will be helped or the opposition will be harmed. That's why minorities are seen going towards SP. Huh."

 

According to the CSDS data, in the 2017 assembly elections, 45% of Muslims had voted for Samajwadi. Congress and BSP got equal 19 percent votes.