The growth rate of the Indian economy is likely to increase by 0.20 percent to 7.5 percent in 2022-23. During this period, the size of the GDP will also increase by 16.1 percent. SBI Research said in a report that because of high inflation and subsequent increase in interest rates, real GDP will increase by 11.1 lakh crore in the current financial year.
This represents a real GDP growth of 7.5 percent in 2022-23, 0.20% higher than our previous estimate. The size of GDP grew by Rs 38.6 lakh crore to Rs 237 lakh crore in 2021-22 at current prices, an increase of 19.5% year-on-year, the report said.
If inflation remains high in the first half of 2022-23, the size of GDP will increase by 16.1% this year to Rs 275 lakh crore at current prices. On the other hand, according to the recently released government data, the economic growth rate in 2021-22 was 8.7 percent. GDP increased by 11.8 lakh crore to Rs 147 lakh crore. However, it is only 1.5% higher than the financial year 2019-20 before the pandemic.
The Repo rate will increase by 0.50 percent by August
SBI Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh said that if crude oil prices remain above $ 120 per barrel, the inflation rate can be 6.5-6.7% in the current financial year. On the liquidity front, he said that the RBI will support economic growth by increasing the repo rate gradually. The repo rate may increase by 0.50% in the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to be held in June and August. The cash reserve ratio may also increase by 0.25% in June. It further states that the central bank can increase the repo rate by 1.25-1.5%, which was four percent during the Kovid period.
A fiscal deficit may reach 10.2%
UBS Securities said efforts to contain inflation by raising interest rates may push the fiscal deficit to a high of 10.2% of GDP in 2022-23. However, it will be 0.20 percent lower than a year ago. During this period, the fiscal deficit of the Center is estimated to be 6.4 percent and that of the states at 3.4 percent.
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