Corona: Why did the lockdown return again, did the previous lockdown fail?

Posted on 17th Jul 2020 by rohit kumar

It was the day of 22 March - when the people in India imposed a curfew on their own in the national interest. This disturbed the lives of very few people, because it was Sunday. And Prime Minister Modi had also told about it two days ago, on Thursday 19 March.

 

Addressing the country, the Prime Minister had said, "Friends, this effort of 22 March is a strong symbol of our self-determination and determination to perform our duty in the national interest."

 

Two days later, at 8 pm on March 24, Prime Minister Modi spoke again, and the country closed for 21 days.

 

The Prime Minister said on that day, "The coming 21 days are very important for every citizen, for every family, if health experts believe that 21 days is very important to break the coronavirus cycle. If these 21 days are not possible, The country and your family will go back 21 years. "

 

It was the night of 24 March, today is 17 July. In many parts of the country, the lockdown is returning as before. Why this is happening, the answer lies in Prime Minister Modi's March 24 speech - the coronavirus cycle was not broken. The situation did not recover in 21 days.

 

So did the lockdown fail?

This question had already started to arise during the lockdown and the experts had also come to know about the mess.

 

A little before the end of the first lockdown, K Sujatha Rao, former health secretary of the Government of India, told Outlook magazine, "I am worried, I would hope that the epidemic does not get out of our control. I think India Has followed the government's decision to lockdown very well, the states have also done a good job in finding the source of the cases. Looking at the government data, I felt that it has been controlled (not in communities). Spreading. So along with the controlled situation, if there is a lockdown in the entire country, then the graph should have been flat. But it did not happen, and it is a matter of concern. "

 

Sujata Rao raised this concern in April, during the first lockdown. And today the same things are happening in July. Worry has not subsided, has increased.

 

And this is the reason that either lockdown has to be imposed, or it has to be increased or it has to be tightened again after it is relaxed. The cycle of infection is not breaking and the situation is not stable.

 

Failed to break a bicycle?

March to April happened, April to May, May to June and now July. The first 21 days were remembered, then the day, week, month, date - it became difficult to sit in their minds and people gave up their efforts.

 

And the name of the lockdown was not even removed from people's tongues that 68 days later, on 31 May, another new word came - Unlock-1.

 

The Ministry of Home Affairs removed almost all restrictions from the rest of the areas, except in the Containment areas. And since then many versions of unlock have been coming along with lockdown.

 

But that question about lockdown kept coming back again and again and remained a part of the news. For example, a tweet by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on June 5, comparing India with graphs from Spain, Germany, Italy, and Britain, wrote, "Looks like a failed lockdown."

 

It is July, now neither does the Prime Minister speak like that, nor does Rahul make that type of tweet, nor are people waiting for the daily briefings of Love Agarwal and Punya Salila Srivastava, nor are the tweets of Kerala Chief Minister discussed.

 

Journalists writing amazing headlines have also laid down their arms, the same lines come out of their hands every day - today a record number of infection figures came, the same line again the next day, the same line the next day. Records are being broken daily but the cycle is not being broken.

 

So the question is why is this happening?

 

Crisis worse

Experts believe that at its root is India's weak government health system.

 

Former Indian government health secretary Keshav Desiraju told the BBC, "If your infrastructure is not strong then it is very difficult to face any emergency. If India's basic health system was looked after, it would work, if its If they had the means, they would have faced it better in the event of a crisis. If it is not the system, then the crisis will go from bad to worse. "

 

As time passed the crisis became worse and worse. It bears testimony. On 24 March, when the Prime Minister announced the lockdown, the number of corona infected patients in the country was close to 560 and 10 people died.

 

Then the lockdown was imposed. By the end of the 21-day lockdown, by April 14, this number increased to 10,815. After this, there has been 35,365 till 1 May, 1,90,535 by 1 June, 5,85,493 by 1 July, and 1,004,652 by 16 July.

 

That is, before the lockdown started, the number which was close to five and a half hundred, has gone up from 10 lakhs in four months - 1800 times more than the number of 24 March.

 

However, increasing the number is not surprising. According to experts, this was bound to happen due to increased testing and opening of lockdown.

 

Professor Dilip Mavalankar, director of the Indian Institute of Public Health, based in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, and an alumnus of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, says the lockdown has been effected.

 

Professor Mavalankar told the BBC, "The number remained low for a long time if you look at other countries, there was less number till lockdown, now the number is increasing thereafter the lockdown opens. So that is natural."

But he also said that the preparations that should have been made during the lockdown did not happen.

 

Says Dilip Mavalankar, "The purpose of the lockdown was clear that we should prepare in these two-three months. So wherever we are building the hospital now, it could have been made at that time. Testing, contact tracing, its arrangement, and how much. Could have been better, it should have been seen. The preparations that we are doing right now, would not have been done earlier. "

 

However, epidemiologist Dr. Giridhar Babu of the Institute of Public Health Foundation of India told the BBC's associate journalist Imran Qureshi, "Lockdown is the most important step to stop the virus from spreading. The government has to provide beds, oxygen, ventilators, etc. Arrangements have to be made. Now whether it is found or not, it will be known only when the lockdown ends. "

 

Experts also say that while applying the lockdown, it is also important to keep in mind that if it affects, even if it is not 28 days, then it should be kept at least half of it, that is, for 14 days.

 

Doctor Giridhar Babu said, "If the cycle of the virus is 14 days, it would be fine to do so."

 

What are you now?

 

No one knows what will happen next. But it is definitely that people are bored with the lockdown.

 

At the same time, there is a huge section whose crisis has come on the livelihood, they want to return to normal life as soon as possible. But they are confused - because the number of infected is increasing constantly.

 

Keshav Desiraju says that this is an extraordinary crisis, and it is extremely difficult for the government to continue the lockdown.

 

But at the same time, he advises the government, "Despite all the trouble, the government should continue to strengthen its system, the center should ensure that the states have the money so that they can strengthen the health services." One should keep investing in their institutions, buy safety items for doctors, nurses, work on additional places like beds. It is most important to ensure this in this phase of the crisis. "

 

At the same time, Professor Mavalankar says that the most important thing is that there should be an arrangement to protect the lives of the elderly, sick, and infirm population.

 

He says, "The virus will not escape from the lockdown. The cases will also increase when the lockdown opens, it is natural. But death should be reduced."