Inflation: Claim- There may be recession in the whole world next year, crude oil may be $ 45 per barrel

Posted on 8th Jul 2022 by rohit kumar

There is a possibility of recession all over the world next year. A third of those surveyed by Russell Investments Fixed Income said a recession could happen by next year. 27 percent believe that in 2024 the whole world may face a recession. 28 percent of the people surveyed said this is possible only after 2024. Two-thirds of fund managers expect US core inflation to remain at 3.4-5% over the next year, much higher than the central bank's 2 percent range here. Gerard Fitzpatrick, head of fixed income at Russell Investments, said, "There is a risk of recession, but there are differing views on timing."

 

 

IMF also expressed apprehension

 

International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva has said that the possibility of a possible global recession next year cannot be ruled out. The risk of recession for all the world's economies has deepened after April. In the coming weeks, the IMF may bring down the growth forecast of the world economy to 3.6 percent for the third time.

 

 

58 percent accepted high inflation and weak growth

 

In the survey, 58 percent of the people said that their concern is about high inflation and a weak growth rate. The risks have also increased in recent weeks. For this bond investors are preparing for a sharp recession. On the other hand, there has been a sharp rise in crude oil prices over the last two days and it has gone beyond $100.

 

Crude oil prices may go up to $ 65

 

Amid fears of recession, the price of crude oil has fallen drastically in recent times. Foreign brokerage firm Citi has claimed that crude oil prices may fall to $ 65 a barrel by the end of this year. Citi claims that crude oil prices may fall next year as well. It could go up to $45 by the end of 2023.

 

Relaxation in the rules for bringing the foreign exchange to stop the fall in the rupee

 

To contain the fall in the rupee, the RBI on Thursday issued a notification regarding foreign investment in the bond market and relaxing the provisions of banks' foreign currency loans. Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said that the steps taken by the central bank will increase the inflow of foreign institutional investors. This will strengthen the rupee against the dollar. The rupee has lost 4.1% in the past few months. agency

 

These steps have been taken

 

ECB limit was raised from $750 million to $1.5 billion through an automatic route.

 

Exemption for foreign portfolio investors to invest in government securities of 7 and 14 years.

 

Relaxation in provisions relating to CRR and SLR on NRE deposits to banks.

 

Banks can use the money raised from loans taken in foreign currency for foreign currency lending in India.

 

7.10 crore people are in poverty due to inflation

 

710 crore people in the world have come under poverty due to inflation. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in its report cited the Russo-Ukraine war as the reason. According to the report, 5.16 crore people living on $1.90 (Rs 150) per day became poor in the first three months of the war.

 

Together, 9% of the world's population has become poor. The number of people living on less than $ 3.20 (Rs 253) per day has also increased by 20 million. Low-income families spend 42 percent of their earnings on food items. Poverty increases rapidly due to the increase in their prices.

 

cause of inflation

 

Ukraine's ports were blocked by the war. Grain exports hindered and rising oil prices.

 

more impact on these countries

 

Haiti, Argentina, Egypt, Turkey, Philippines, Rwanda, Sudan, Kenya, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Mali, Nigeria, and Yemen.

 

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