Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a letter to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on Pakistan Day. After this, hopes are being made to establish good relations between the two countries again.
It is not that the desire to establish peace between the two countries has not been expressed before.
The Prime Ministers of the two countries have made positive statements earlier, expressing the hope of good relations.
However, in the context of security situation, especially in the context of Indian-administered Kashmir, these statements became mere statements.
Based on this expectation, if we look at the mutual and one-sided objectives of India and Pakistan, then the experts consider the developments in recent times to be good.
However, they also warn that there is no immediate solution to these issues, rather they are possible in a phased manner.
Recent developments and messages between Indo-Pak
On the occasion of Pakistan Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has written in a letter to the Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan that India wants a cordial relationship with the people of Pakistan.
Not only this, recently when Imran Khan became corona positive, Modi also sent a letter wishing him to get well soon.
Many other signs of change in the atmosphere were also seen when Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan and Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa made statements about improving relations with India.
Is there a conversation going on inside?
It is also necessary to clarify here that the reason for the relations and statements between India and Pakistan in diplomatic circles is being told to 'Track to Diplomacy' at this time.
In February, some Indian and international newspapers mentioned a possible 'secret dialogue' between India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his Pakistani counterpart Moeed Yousuf following an agreement between the two countries over a ceasefire along the Line of Control.
However, Moed Yusuf denied this in a tweet and said that all the claims made in this regard are baseless.
Former Army Chief General Jahangir Karamat's name has also repeatedly surfaced in this regard. When Jahangir Karamat was talked to close sources, he said that he had no information about it.
What is the role of the United Arab Emirates?
Meanwhile, rumors are also hot in both countries that the UAE has a big role to play in improving Pakistan-India relations.
One thing is also going on that the role of the UAE royal family is behind the recent developments in both countries.
In this regard, Bloomberg recently published a report stating that India and Pakistan have started following a four-member 'peace blueprint' to build peace, which has been prepared by the United Arab Emirates government. . '
Bloomberg wrote in his report that 'UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan is a constant guide in negotiations between the two countries.
However, no official statement has been released yet about the veracity of the news. But it has not been denied by the three countries.
Imran Khan's special assistant for information and broadcasting affairs, Rauf Hasan told the BBC that Pakistan will always welcome its views and suggestions on issues with close countries and India.
He said, "Instead of what the United Arab Emirates or America has said, it is important at this time that the talks are going on between the two countries. If you look into history, Pakistan has already given positive support and offer to other countries Has seen the way. But India has always rejected the interference of any other country, saying that it is a bilateral matter. "
Recently, Saudi Arabia's Deputy Foreign Minister Adil al-Zubair admitted that Saudi Arabia is trying to reduce tensions between India and Pakistan.
In an interview with Arab News, Zubair had said that Saudi Arabia wants peace in the entire region and wants to try for it at various levels.
Can there be some major changes?
After the recent bitterness in the relations between the two neighboring countries, there are signs of some positive changes suddenly.
Former Pakistan Home Minister Moinuddin Haider told the BBC that now two or three things can be done immediately. Both countries should send their ambassadors back.
"The visa policy should be simplified so that people living on both sides can easily travel to religious places and trade should be resumed from the Wagah border between the two countries," he said.
On this issue, 'The Hindu' editor Amit Barua told BBC correspondent Shakeel Akhtar that whenever there is a sudden announcement between India and Pakistan, we can assume that some back-channel diplomacy is happening behind it.
Amit Barua says that it is remarkable that this change in the atmosphere is coming after Biden became the President of America.
He said, "America is also interested that India and Pakistan should keep in touch with each other." I think it will be difficult at this stage to walk with a big agreement or a big agenda. But yes, both countries can take immediate steps on issues like trade and movement of people. "
Kashmir issue
Pakistan's Union Human Rights Minister Shirin Mazari's statement came after Prime Minister Modi sent a letter to Imran Khan.
Welcoming Modi's offer of peace, he said that it was necessary to take steps on the issue of Kashmir too, citing human rights violations in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The importance of Kashmir in India-Pakistan relations can be gauged from the fact that India and Pakistan have fought wars twice, in 1948 and 1965, till now.
Since August 2019, Pakistan has protested many times on the international stage on India's decision to remove Article 370 of the Constitution in Kashmir and to end the special status of Kashmir in India. He has also spoken to the heads of many countries on this issue.
Addressing the first Islamabad security talks in Pakistan's capital Islamabad, Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa also said that the dream of peace in the subcontinent is incomplete until the Kashmir issue is resolved.
Rauf Hasan says, "These issues will be resolved one by one, which will take time. Pakistan knows that without talks on Kashmir, peace talks with India will not be complete. Kashmir will never be removed from the table. August It was finished after 2019, but if the talks still go ahead, it will start by providing relief in Kashmir. "
Experts believe that this 'relief' means lifting restrictions on the movement of people in Kashmir, restoring the internet there, and gradually improving the situation.
'India does not want war in the region at this time
Senator Mushahid Hussain says, "India does not want any kind of war in the region at the moment. That is why there is some flexibility in India's attitude."
According to him, "The main reason for this is that the regional situation has changed. Secondly, the steps that India has taken regarding Kashmir are being criticized. So apart from talking about peace at this time and this region, It is not in their interest to distance themselves from other countries. "
He believes that as far as the current situation in the region is concerned, India needs to be a part of the peace plan in Afghanistan and especially the US peace plan at this time.
Going back a bit, Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of lobbying Pakistan through various sessions of the Financial Task Force (FATF) to blacklist it, to stop the financial aid of the extremists.
In this regard, Moinuddin Haider told the BBC, "Jaish-e-Mohammad or Lashkar-e-Taiba, India should no longer accuse the issue as these groups have been broken. So now is the time to build trust.". "
But in the meantime, Pakistan's involvement as an intermediary in the Afghan peace process and Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election has become an important opportunity for India to think about its position in the region.
Mushahid Hussain says, "Biden's victory means that the United States will remain dependent on Pakistan for the next two to three years, and in such a situation to engender any hostility, to separate itself at the regional level and globally Will be equal. "
On the other hand, another problem is India's border dispute with China and China's proximity to Pakistan.
India fears that tensions between China and India in May 2020 and January 2021 and increasing proximity between Pakistan and China may result in India getting stuck on the eastern and northern borders.
Mushahid Hussain says, "Along with this Modi government's internal problems including the Covid-19 epidemic, economy and farmers' struggle are forcing India to take a U-turn."
At the same time, Rauf Hasan says, "Pakistan's role in the Afghan peace process will be to pave the way between East and West. Pakistan's effort is to see its various options in the region as well as removing the country from geographical strategy, To be seen as a geo-economy. "
Rauf Hasan says that at the moment we can only make a guess and ask both sides to do a thorough review of the cases ahead.
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