New Delhi. True, the situation in the country is difficult, but it is expected to improve soon. Two of the world's largest agencies have made this golden prediction for India. Both agencies have said that with the impact of Corona decreasing in this year i.e. 2020, the growth rate, also called growth rate of GDP, will start accelerating.
In the next two years i.e. by 2022, India's growth rate will be from 8.5% to 9.5%. The agencies that say so are Fitch and S&P. Both are the largest rating agency internationally.
There is a difference of only one per cent between Fitch and S&P. Fitch estimates that India's growth rate will be 9.5% in the next two years, with S&P citing it as 8.5%. But rating agencies say that to get the momentum of recovery, India will need to focus on reforms in the financial sector and the labor market.
GDP estimated to fall by 5% in the current financial year
Fitch Ratings forecast an improvement in the Indian economy in FY 2022. The agency said on Wednesday that the Indian economy will rebound sharply after the fall due to the coronavirus epidemic in the current financial year. Its growth rate in the next financial year will be 9.5%. However, the financial sector will have to be reformed for faster growth rate. The agency has projected a 5% reduction in GDP in the current financial year.
GDP growth will be 8.5% due to strong recovery in 2022: S&P
Standard & Poor's (S&P) has said that despite a big fall in FY 2021, there are signs of a strong recovery in India. With this, India's GDP growth could be close to 8.5% in FY 2022. However, the agency has said that there is a need to improve the weak financial sector and labor market. If this is not done then recovery may be affected. The agency has projected a 5% reduction in GDP in the current financial year.
India's rating does not change on 'BBB-'
The rating agency has not changed India's sovereign credit ratings to 'BBB-'. The agency has confirmed long-term ratings on India's foreign and local currency as 'BBB-' and short for 'A-3'. Apart from this, S&P Global Ratings has stated that India's outlook is stable on long-term ratings. The rating agency said in a statement on Wednesday that the stable scenario suggests that India's economy will improve after the Covid-19 epidemic is curbed and the country will retain its strong position.
Fiscal deficit estimated to be 11% of GDP in 2021
S&P said that the recent measures taken by the Government of India pave the way for good policy. But lower revenue will continue to weaken India's fiscal situation. The agency said that due to the Corona epidemic it would be difficult for the government to take strict steps to raise revenue. In such a situation, India's fiscal deficit could be 11% of GDP in FY 2021.
GDP growth at 4.2% in FY 2020
The country's GDP growth during the January-March quarter has been 3.1%. However, GDP growth during the whole year was 4.2%. Similarly, the Grass Value Added (GVA) has been 3.9%. According to data from the Central Statistical Department, the growth rate of GDP in the October-December quarter was 4.7%. Whereas during the entire year of 2019, this growth rate was 6.1%.
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