Retail inflation has been running at over 6 percent for the last four months and reached a record low of 7.8 percent in April, the last eight years. According to economic experts, along with the global situation, economic growth at the domestic level can also be attributed to this inflation as there is a continuous increase in consumption. An increase in loans for the purchase of consumer durables, reduction in gold loans, reduction in the number of people seeking work under MGNREGA along with a steady increase in imports is showing strength in domestic demand. In April last, even after removing the import price of petroleum products and gold and silver from the import bill, the import of other items is showing an increase of 29.68 percent, which reflects the strength of domestic manufacturing and demand. Record GST collection in April, along with an increase in exports, electricity consumption, petrol-diesel consumption, and some air passengers, along with strong growth in manufacturing and service index is reflecting economic growth. Economist Sudipto Mandal, who was a member of the Fourteenth Finance Commission, says that the increase in demand over the last six months along with the global situation is responsible for the inflation. He said that if the supply does not match the demand, the prices go up. He said that imported inflation is also a factor in the current inflation.
Sakshi Gupta, Senior Economist, HDFC Bank said that a higher growth rate increases inflationary pressure. In the current situation, due to supply disruption, inflation is being affected, while in some sectors, especially in the service sector, due to an increase in demand, inflation is also increasing. According to a recent report by the Finance Ministry, there has been a steady increase in loans taken for the purchase of consumer durables for the last three months. In March this year, there was an increase of 60 percent in this loan as compared to March last year. This trend is more or less continued in April as well. On the other hand, there has been a decrease in the loan taken against gold, which shows that people are now getting less cash. The growth rate of gold loans was 26.8 percent in February, which came down to 21 percent in March. The increase in consumer confidence made by the RBI through the Current Situation Index in March this year also reflects the fact that despite the global challenge and inflationary pressures, employment at the domestic level is due to better economic conditions. With the increase in household income and expenditure is increasing.
However, many economic experts consider the economic package given by the government during the Corona period to be somewhat responsible for this inflation. According to economist Pinaki Chakraborty, the effect of the economic package given during the Corona period is now visible in the form of inflation. According to experts, in the last financial year 2021-22, there has also been an increase in the benefit amount given by the government directly in the account, and consumption is showing an increase. According to the estimates of IMF Outlook, India will be the fastest-growing country in the current financial year 22-23 with a growth rate of 8.2 percent.
signs of economic growth in April
GST collection ---- 1.68 lakh crore highest ever
Electricity consumption --- 11.5 percent more than last year in April, mainly industrial states Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Uttar Pradesh have the highest demand for electricity
E-mobility level in April was 9.2 percent more than before Corona, the average daily e-toll in April was 88.3 lakh, which is 62 percent from April last year and 40 percent more than March this year.
There was an increase of 10.3 percent in non-agricultural loans in April, 6.15 lakh crore assistance was given from DBT in the financial year 21-22, which is 11 percent more than the previous financial year.
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