Nepal's Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli lost the trust vote in Parliament on Monday. After this, efforts have started to form a new government in the country. But according to experts, the matter of forming a new government is now more complicated than before.
After KP Sharma Oli failed to prove his majority in Parliament on Monday, President Vidya Devi Bhandari told all political parties that they could stake claim to form the new government by 9 pm on Thursday.
The President has said that according to Article 76 (2) of the Constitution of Nepal, to form a new government, two or more parties can stake a claim to form a government based on their strength in Parliament.
What happened on Monday?
Out of a total of 232 MPs present in the Nepali Parliament, 124 voted against KP Sharma Oli and Oli could not prove the trust vote.
Only 93 votes were cast in support of Oli, while 15 MPs opted to remain neutral.
Oli's ruling CPN-UML has 121 votes in Nepal's federal parliament. But an internal dispute was going on in the party and because of this one faction did not take part in the parliamentary proceedings. The faction is headed by two former Prime Ministers Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal.
The main opposition party in the federal parliament was the Nepali Congress and the third largest political party Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Center) stood against the Prime Minister.
However, the Janata Samajvadi Party with 32 votes was divided in the matter of voting on the trust vote. The party's Mahant Thakur faction decided to remain neutral, while the faction led by Upendra Yadav voted against Oli.
Now, what is the status of the current Parliament?
There are currently 271 members in Nepal's federal parliament. 136 MPs will be required to support the proposal to form a government.
Oli has 121 MPs from the Nepal Communist Party (Unified Marxist-Leninist).
The main opposition party, the Nepali Congress, has 63 MPs (two members have been suspended, so they cannot vote).
Similarly, there are 49 MPs of the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Center) led by Pushp Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda'.
The fourth-largest party, Janata Samajbadi Party, has 34 seats in Parliament (two MPs have also been suspended).
In such a situation, the role of the Janata Samajbadi Party can be very important to form a government.
Why is the issue of forming a new government so complicated?
Even though the Nepali Congress and the Maoist Center are clearly against the caretaker government and are pushing for a new government under the leadership of Sher Bahadur Deuba, the head (Chairman) of the Nepali Congress.
But the Janata Samajbadi Party seems divided. The Nepali Congress and the Maoist Center together account for 110 seats in the Parliament. This means they only need 26 more votes.
Since 15 MPs of the Janata Samajbadi Party voted against the Oli government on Monday. Therefore it seems that so many votes should fall in favor of forming a new government.
This means that with the support of this faction led by Upendra Yadav, President of the Central Committee of Janata Samajbadi, the votes of 125 MPs will be obtained in support of Deuba. Still, he will stay away from getting the votes required to form a government.
On the other hand, the faction led by Mahant Thakur, the central president of the Janata Samajbadi Party, has issued a statement indicating to stay away from forming an alternative government. Members of his faction (15 of these MPs were neutral during the vote of confidence on Monday) may not give their support for the new government.
Four seats in Parliament are of small parties and independents.
After all, how is it possible to form a new government in this situation?
This seems to be possible. The internal split in the Nepal Communist Party integrated Marxist-Leninist can prove to help form a new government.
On Monday, 28 party MPs did not participate in the voting during the confidence vote in Parliament and neither were they present during the proceedings of the Parliament.
This faction of MPs is headed by two former Prime Ministers Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal. Due to an internal dispute in the party, these people had warned Oli to resign collectively from the post of MP. He was also scheduled to resign on Monday but he did not do so. Instead, he remained absent from Parliament.
In the current situation, if Madhav Kumar Nepal of CPN-UML and some MPs of the Jhalnath Khanal faction resign, then the number of votes required to form a new government will be reduced. With this, efforts to form a new government of the Nepali Congress and Maoist Center can be successful.
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