Bihar Exit Polls: 11 exit polls predict NDA forming government in Bihar, 1 predicts a close contest

Voting for the 243 seats of the Bihar Assembly took place in two phases. The first phase of voting took place on November 6th and the second phase on November 11th. The results will be declared on November 14th. Exit poll results have also been released. All exit polls show the NDA forming a government.

Matriz, P-Mark, JVC Poll, People's Pulse, People's Inside, Chanakya Strategies, and NDTV Poll of Polls, released after the voting, also showed the NDA returning to power.

Contrary to all exit polls so far, Axis My India has predicted that the NDA may fall short of a majority in Bihar. Pollsters have estimated that the NDA will win 121 to 140 seats, the Grand Alliance 98-118, and Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraj Party between zero and two seats.

The majority mark in the 243-seat Bihar Assembly is 122, and Axis My India estimates the NDA is one short of that. Meanwhile, a higher estimate of 118 for the Grand Alliance, comprising key constituents like the RJD and Congress, could bring it very close to a majority.

However, the most worrying figure for the NDA will be the vote share estimates. Pollsters have estimated that the NDA will receive 43% of the vote and the Grand Alliance 41%, meaning there will be a difference of just two percentage points between the two.

If Axis My India's estimates are correct, the Bihar elections are not as clear-cut as 11 other exit polls suggest. Many exit polls have given the NDA a clear majority. CNX has even predicted 150-170 seats for the NDA, well above the two-thirds majority mark.

Exit polls have often been incorrect. Tejashwi Yadav is also dismissing the exit polls. They say that a Grand Alliance government is being formed in Bihar. Many exit polls proved wrong in 2020 as well. RJD won 75 seats in the 2020 assembly elections, and pollsters have predicted that it will win between 67 and 76 seats this time.

JDU is projected to win 56-62 seats in second place, followed by the BJP with 50-56 seats and the Congress with 17-21 seats.

If the numbers remain the same, it would mean that JDU's tally will increase from 43 seats in 2020, while the BJP will lose a significant number of seats from the previous election's 74.

Other Data

Two other pollsters, VoteVibe and CNX, released their data on Wednesday, both predicting a clear majority for the NDA.

VoteVibe had projected 125-145 seats for the NDA, 95-115 for the Grand Alliance, and between 0 and 2 for the Jan Suraj Party. CNX went a step further, predicting 150-170 seats for the NDA, 70-90 for the Grand Alliance, and 0-2 for the Jan Suraj Party.