Global trade growth is likely to slow down in the latter months of 2022 and 2023 as the world economy remains mired in strong headwinds. Data from the World Trade Organization's Goods Trade Barometer confirm this. Currently, the Goods Trade Barometer Index reading is 96.2.
The Goods Trade Barometer is an overall leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on trade relative to recent trends. A value greater than 100 indicates an uptrend, while a value less than 100 indicates a downtrend.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Monday that the decline in the index could be attributed to the war in Ukraine, high energy prices, and monetary tightening in major economies. The sub-indices representing Export Orders (91.7), Air Freight (93.3), and Electronic Components (91.0) showed negative readings. Also, these figures show sluggishness in the business world and weakness in global imports.
Small declines in the Container Shipping (99.3) and Raw Materials (97.6) indices, but these sectors have certainly lost momentum. The main exception on this barometer is the Automotive Products Index (103.8), which has risen above the trend due to strong vehicle sales in the United States. Exports from Japan also increased as supply conditions improved. The yen continued to depreciate during this period. Explain that the Goods Trade Barometer is released every quarter based on data availability.
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