On Thursday 14 October, the foreign ministers of China and Bhutan held a meeting via video conferencing and signed a three-step roadmap agreement to resolve the border disputes between the two countries for many years.
The agreement comes four years after the 73-day standoff between the armies of India and China at the Doklam tri-junction. The standoff in Doklam started when China tried to build a road in an area that was claimed by Bhutan.
On this agreement, India's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said, "We have noted the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Bhutan and China today. You are aware that Bhutan and China have been having border talks since 1984. . India is also holding border talks with China in the same way.
On this matter, the Foreign Ministry of Bhutan said that the MoU on a three-step or three-phase roadmap will give a new impetus to the border talks.
Bhutan shares a border of more than 400 km with China and the two countries have held 24 rounds of border talks since 1984 to resolve the dispute.
India may not have given any detailed response to this agreement, but due to the ongoing tension with China for the last one and a half years, it is not in a position to ignore this development.
Which area is China eyeing?
The two areas over which there is more dispute between China and Bhutan, one is an area of 269 square kilometers near the India-China-Bhutan trijunction, and the other is an area of 495 square kilometers in the north of Bhutan in the Jakarlung and Pasmalung valleys.
China wants to give Bhutan an area of 495 square kilometers and in return, it wants to take an area of 269 square kilometers.
Retired Indian Army Major General SB Asthana is a strategic affairs analyst.
He believes that China has always been trying to build bilateral relations with its weaker countries so that it can influence those countries with its economic and military clout and make decisions for its benefit.
He says, "The two areas on the northern border of Bhutan, which China claims, one of them is the Chumbi Valley, near which there was a standoff between India and China in Doklam. China demanded that the Chumbi Valley area be from Bhutan. And is ready to give him another disputed area in return, which is much bigger than the Chumbi Valley area. The area that China is asking for is close to the Siliguri Corridor of India.
The Siliguri Corridor, also known as Chicken's Neck, is very important for India as it is India's main road to reach the northeastern states and it will be a matter of serious concern for India if the Chinese come close to the Siliguri Corridor. Because it can become a threat to the connectivity with the northeastern states.
Major General Asthana says, "The area of Chicken's Neck is very important for India from a strategic point of view. If China gains even a little bit in this area, it will be a huge loss for India. And this deal will not be in the interest of India."
'Trying to create psychological pressure'
Dr. Alka Acharya is a Professor at the Center for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. He believes that India's concerns may increase due to this development.
She says, "After the Doklam dispute, China launched a campaign to contact Bhutan and talk about the border. It was seen that there was a lot of initiative from the Chinese side. Now China's effort That is, he should agree with Bhutan directly. This will increase India's problem because then it will be said that now China has made a deal with everyone and only India is left, then why is it like that? It will create psychological pressure."
According to Professor Acharya, "It will also be a matter of concern for India that what kind of agreement will be made on that tri-junction where the borders of the three countries meet near Doklam."
She says that looking at all this, the situation is a bit delicate and India will have to keep a close watch on it.
Confused about Bhutan?
Does this latest development create a dilemma for Bhutan due to the ongoing tension between China and India?
Professor Acharya says that it is clear that the relations between India and Bhutan are very deep and Bhutan has more inclination towards India. "A lot of money goes to Bhutan from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India. Financially, India helps Bhutan a lot and India has tried that China should not interfere much in Bhutan. China also criticizes that India He wants to keep Bhutan under his control. He has said this many times."
But according to Professor Acharya, since Bhutan is a small land-locked country, it is natural that it would not want it to have any relationship with China. She says, "Bhutan would also like that its border dispute with China is resolved, after which it can start building an economic relationship with China. So in a way it is also about the ideas of an independent country about development Bhutan is in a way trapped between India and China, it does not want to be put in such a position that it is seen with and against anyone between India and China.
Professor Acharya says that Bhutan is a country that talks about the Gross National Happiness Index instead of GDP and it has no interference in the power-politics between the countries.
He believes that India has to keep in mind the sensitivity of Bhutan and if China is taking this initiative with Bhutan, then it should be India's effort that it continues to talk with Bhutan so that it knows that with China. In which direction is his conversation going?
China's intention
On the other hand, Major General Asthana believes that this is China's strategy to create pressure. He says, "China's strategy is to win without fighting. It does not want war and therefore its strategy consists of pressure, propaganda, intimidation, and inducement of neighbors."
He says that China's ultimate objective is that India should stop talking about the ongoing standoff in eastern Ladakh and trade activities between the two countries should resume as before. China wants to maintain the current situation in Ladakh. But India is not bowing down, so China is trying to put pressure on other areas.
Asthana says that if India is not alert, then soon a Chinese railway line will reach Chumbi Valley. He says, “China already has plans for a rail line up to Yatung and Yatung is at the mouth of the Chumbi Valley. So if India is not careful and China manages to make a deal with Bhutan, it will have its place in the Chumbi Valley. There will be no effect.
According to him, the deployment of the Indian Army in this area is the strongest because they are stationed at high altitudes, so China may not be able to break into the Siliguri Corridor, but reaching the trijunction area can give it a strategic advantage.
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