The corona speed in the country is increasing at a record pace. More than 2 lakh 50 thousand cases are coming every day since last week, Maharashtra, Delhi, and other states have been put on lockdown. On the other hand, after the election rallies, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, realizing the seriousness of the matter, gave a message to the nation. He said that lockdown should only be used as a last resort.
To understand the government's softness on the move like lockdown across the country, we also spoke to 4 experts from different sectors, including Public Health Policy Expert Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, Retired Banker, and Market Expert Ajay Bagga, Senior Economist Brinda Jagirdar, and Sociologist Chitra Awasthi is included. Let's know what they have to say ...
All experts are unconcerned over not locking the lockdown.
Strict requirements on prohibitions such as not needlessly leaving the house instead of lockdown
The government failed to improve health services, no major steps were taken this year
Social security wedges should be given on the lines of Europe, which will awaken the sense of responsibility among the common people.
Ajay Bagga, a retired banker, and a market expert says that the service sector has a major share in the country's GDP and has not been able to improve for the past year. A large number of informal workers are returning to villages from partial lockdowns in major states. This will only affect the economic recovery. Global rating agency Credit Suisse has also stated that the lockdown in the states is adversely affecting GDP.
Very unlikely to have a lockdown like last time.
Ajay Bagga said that if the partial lockdown lasts one or one and a half months then GDP can fall by 1-1.5% every month. However, the possibility of a strict lockdown like last year due to the running of industrial activity is extremely low.
Senior economist Brinda Jagirdar says that the economy will get full support from the Agri sector this time too. There will also be the manufacturing sector. But the migration of laborers has badly affected the service sector. However, GDP will not be affected as much as last year.
Seeing lockdown as the last option raises the question of what are the options to deal with Corona?
Public Health Policy Expert Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya says that applying lockdown gives time to prepare health services, which we saw a year ago. Currently, the lockdown has no meaning, as the infection has just started spreading 10–15 days ago.
He said that if people are made aware from now and strict action is taken on needless exit then the cases of corona may decline in the next 10 days. Besides, health needs must be met.
RC Bhargava, chairman of the country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki, also believes that a lockdown in the fight against Corona is not good. In an interview with ET, he said that a lot of people will face problems due to curfew and lockdown. This is not the right solution.
The countries most affected by Corona include Brazil, including the United States, Britain. The economy of these countries also declined due to strict lockdown. But then fast recovery returned to the track, how?
Ajay Bagga said that a huge relief package was behind the reforms in Europe and the American economy. In Europe, these relief packages were given directly to companies, which did not cause jobs. At the same time, its benefits reached companies and people in America. This increased the expenditure of the people, as a result, the economic situation improved rapidly.
He said that a relief package was also announced in India. RBI cut interest rates and restructuring was done for small and medium traders. Apart from this, a food subsidy was also given. Despite this, the service sector was adversely affected.
Many countries like America and Britain have advised their citizens to avoid going to India. In such a situation, Hospitality, Tourism, and Airlines were not able to recover from the first wave of Corona, that now these sectors will be badly affected by the second wave, Ajay Bagga says that the loss to the airlines in 2020-21 reaches 26 thousand crores. Can.
At the same time, Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya says that there is no comparison of India with Europe, America. Because lockdown or any such decision is taken there, people are given social security wages. For example, if there is a lockdown, then the government will be given 2 thousand dollars. This reduces the financial problem for the common man and this gives the support of the people to the government, but in India, it is slightly less possible.
However, Brinda Jagirdar believes that the comparison between India and other countries is a significant factor in population. Secondly, more is spent abroad on the health budget, which is much less in India. Apart from this, the people there are more responsible than Indians. The greater involvement of the service sector in India's economy also makes it difficult.
Dr. Chandrakant says that there are 90 lakh active cases in the population of 33 crores in America, but there is no panic. At the same time, the situation is uncontrollable when 9-10 lakh cases are active in the population of more than 130 crores in India. That is, we need to work on our health services.
Do not suffer like last year, hence the workers leaving the city from now
Like last year, migrant laborers are fast returning home due to lockdowns and health concerns. During this time, fear of corona was seen in the people, and haste to reach home was more visible. People away from social distancing are also shying away from wearing masks.
On migrating laborers, sociologist Chitra Awasthi says that people are not necessarily going home due to lockdown. Most of the workers go home this season.
Giving the example of Delhi, he said that last year there was a dire need for laborers working in companies, but no one was being found. After about three months, just before the rain, once again the crowd of laborers started returning to the cities.
Chitra Awasthi says that a large number of laborers visited the village during April-May even before Corona. Then return after 1 or 2 months. It is not right to blame only Corona and lockdown for the exodus.
Unlocking unemployment in cities due to lockdown
According to the Delhi-based think tank Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the urban unemployment rate rose to 10.72% on April 18 from 9.81% in the previous week. The overall unemployment rate declined to 8.4% during this period from 8.58% in the previous week.
Mahesh Vyas, MD of CMIE, said that out of the 10 million people who got salary due to the epidemic, 60 lakh people lost their jobs. The unemployment rate peaked at 27.11% on 3 May last year. He said that the main reason for increasing urban unemployment is the lockdown in states like Maharashtra and Delhi.
PM also worries about the economy, does not want to repeat last year's mistake
Most experts believe that the prime minister's concern is about health as well as the economy, as a nationwide tight lockdown last year led to a historic decline in the economy and the GDP growth rate slipped to 23.9% in the first quarter.
This decline continued for two consecutive quarters, becoming positive during October-December with a slight increase of 0.4%. According to the RBI, one can see positive growth of 5% in GDP during January-March, i.e. the fourth quarter.
But with rising Corona cases and strict restrictions, rating agencies have lowered their estimates on GDP growth for the financial year 2021-22. Because the curfew and lockdown are affecting the economic activities. The fallout of Corona's ever-increasing cases can also be seen in the fall in vehicle registration, power consumption, GST e-way bill generation in April.
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