Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has released the monsoon forecast for 2022. According to this, the monsoon is likely to be normal this year. That is, this time there will be 98% rain during the 4 months of rain. Normally, India receives 880.6 mm of rainfall between June and September, i.e. in 2022, it may be 98% of the same amount.
Skymet has also kept a margin of 5% increase or decrease in this estimate. Rainfall of 96%-104% is said to be normal.
States where there is less chance of rain
The agency has said in its forecast that there may be more rain than normal in MP-UP and Punjab, Haryana, popularly known as the Food Bowl. Whereas in Gujarat there will be less rain than normal. Along with Rajasthan and Gujarat, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura in the Northeast region will see less rain throughout the season.
On the other hand, Kerala and Karnataka will also see less rain from July-August. As per the forecast, the first part of the rainy season across the country will be better than the latter. A good start of the monsoon is expected in June.
Rain forecast from June to September
June may receive 107% of the rainfall against the Long Period Average (166.9 mm). That is, 70% of normal, 20% excessive and 10% less rain may occur.
In July, 100% rainfall is expected against the long period average (285.3 mm). That is, 65% will be normal, 20% excessive and 15% less rain.
In August, 95% of rainfall is expected against the long period average (258.2 mm). That is, 60% normal, 10% excessive, and 30% less rain.
In September, 90% of rainfall is expected against the long period average (170.2 mm). That means 20% normal, 10% excessive, and 70% less rain.
Monsoon will be protected from El Nino
The last 2 monsoon seasons had back-to-back La Nia effects. Earlier, La Nia started decreasing rapidly during the winter season, but its return has stopped due to the intensification of easterly winds. However, the La Nina of the Pacific Ocean is likely to prevail till the onset of the Southwest Monsoon. Therefore, the existence of El Nio that disturbs the monsoon is generally ruled out.
This was the condition of monsoon last year
Entire India receives an average of 880.6 mm of rain during the 4 months of the monsoon, which is called the Long Period Average (LPA). That is, 880.6 mm of rain is considered 100%. Skymet had predicted 907 mm of rain last year. This time it has been given a figure of 862.9 mm. If the agency's estimate proves to be correct, then this will be a good monsoon in India for the fourth year in a row.
How do you measure rain?
In 1662, Christopher Wren created the first rain gauge in Britain. It is shaped like a beaker or tube with a reading scale attached to it. There is a funnel on this beaker, through which rainwater collects and comes into the beaker. By measuring the amount of water in the beaker, it is ascertained how much rain has fallen. In most rain gauges, rain is measured in millimeters.
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