Only help with accurate Corona infection data


Posted on 7th Jul 2020 04:49 pm by rohit kumar

With the increase in coronavirus cases in Delhi, the information provided under the Health Bulletin here is also getting reduced and since the beginning of the second fortnight of June, information related to ventilator or ICU is no longer available. In these health bulletins given daily, age-wise details of patients have also been stopped. No health bulletins were issued in May and June for a few days. From the beginning of May, the Ministry of Health started sharing the number of Covid infections only once a day, and from 11 June, the Ministry stopped regular press briefings to provide updates on the epidemic and answer important questions.

 

Epidemiologists worry that the Ministry of Health, state governments, and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) are not sharing enough data associated with the Covid-19 that could hamper the fight against the epidemic. The ICMR gives information about the total number of investigations conducted on the previous day and the total data so far, but does not provide state-wise or city-wise data. The Ministry of Health also provides information related to only active cases, corrected cases, and death statistics in each state.

 

Now no information is available regarding the age group of Covid patients, patients who are in ICU or on a ventilator, or people who have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Gautam Menon, Professor of Computational Biology and Theoretical Physics at Ashoka University, said, "We have no idea of ​​the mortality rate in different regions of India. Scientists outside ICAMR should have had full access to serological data to understand the regionwide spread and to assess the accuracy of the data and to estimate mortality from infection. ' The ICMR is yet to release the findings of its second serological survey to study the spread of the epidemic in containment zones of high-risk districts. The first serological survey revealed that 0.73% of those who were screened had an infection. Scientists are also criticizing the way this data is presented. A senior virologist said, 'Some scientists give the average of the data. You first tell about a scope and after that, you can tell the average. ' Another important information is missing from the data such as data associated with infectivity of COVID-19 or effective reproduction numbers of this virus. Patients who have already been identified do not know whether the infection occurred locally or whether it was external. Rakhal Gaitonde, a professor at Sri Chitra Thirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram, said, "We don't know when they came in contact with an infected person and how they got infected." This is important data because it gives us information about what should be the rules to detect our quarantine or contact with infected people. The center has not shared any data about the contacts that were traced and how many of them were tested positive. Gaitonde said, "Unless all (state) governments share these figures, we have no idea of ​​the dynamics of the spread of the epidemic."

 

Why is data important?

 

Experts believe that countries that provide comprehensive data can understand the needs of their health system and take better steps and increase predictability as well as make predictions for shorter and longer periods. For example, statistics related to SARI (severe respiratory infections) and ILI (influenza-like illness) and counting the total number of before and now deaths due to these causes additional deaths or illnesses beyond the normal season Can be quantified. Virologist Jacob John said, 'We are not doing our basic work. Our only goal at the moment is that the house is on fire and we extinguish the fire. ' John's predictions for Covid in the country are based on the number of deaths. He said, "Total deaths are the only credible number because you cannot dispute that these people died of Covid." However, many deaths related to Covid are not being recorded or attributed to respiratory or ILI related diseases.

 

India has a 2.8 percent mortality rate which is calculated as a percentage of total cases but it also does not give an accurate picture. University of Michigan epidemiology professor Bhramar Mukherjee said the death rate should be determined based on age group and the case to be cured. He says, "The scale of people who have been cured of death and disease will be better rather than taking into account the total matters." By this estimate, the death rate in the country will be around 4.5 percent. Epidemiologists have warned that until better figures are revealed there will be no way to understand how the impact of Covid-19 on the Indian population may be different.

So far, the government's full focus has been on the time it takes for the case to double, the number of patients who are cured or discharged from hospital, and lower mortality rates than other countries. Experts say that this is not useful in terms of increasing the capacity of the hospital and planning according to the need. Mukherjee said, 'You need to estimate the estimated number of confirmed cases active in a day or weeks for an area so that you can expect a portion of them to go to the hospital and ICU and have ventilators will be needed.'

 

Experts say the difference in data stems from a lack of capacity as well as a decrease in transparency from governments. Gaitonde says, "Policymakers are looking at these figures as an assessment of their performance. It is unproductive. '

 

Competition between states is also not good. Even on a state-wise basis, due to differences in resources and facilities, there is a difference in the way the data of the infected is reported. Data information also depends on how the private-public health capacity of different states.

 

Experts believe that the only way to reduce the uncertainties associated with the epidemic is to use data related to our experiences and data from other countries.

 

 

Number of investigations crosses 10 million

 

As of Monday, more than 10 million specimens have been tested to confirm Covid-19 infection in India. An ICMR official gave this information. ICMR scientist and media coordinator Dr. Lokesh Sharma said, "A total of 1,00,04,101 people have been screened till 11 am on July 6, out of which 1,80,596 people have been screened on July 5." Sharma said that there are now a total of 1,105 laboratories in the country for testing coronavirus samples, of which 788 are in the public sector while 317 are in the private sector. As of July 1, there were a total of 9 million checks across the country. Sharma said, "As of May 25, the test capacity was about 1.5 lakhs per day, which has now been increased to three lakhs per day."

 

 

Cases close to seven million

 

The country saw 24,248 cases of Covid-19 in one day, after which the total number of coronavirus infections in India reached near seven lakh on Monday. The Union Home Ministry gave this information. According to the ministry, after the death of 425 more people from Covid-19, the death toll from this epidemic has increased to 19,693. More than 20 thousand cases of coronavirus infection have been reported in the country for the fourth consecutive day. India became the third country to be most affected by Covid-19, overtaking Russia on Sunday. Only America and Brazil are ahead of India in total infection cases. So far, 4,24,432 patients of Covid-19 in the country have recovered after treatment. Language

 

 

Commentary not possible until 15 August

 

The Indian Academy of Sciences (ISC), a body of scientists in Bangalore, has said that the ICMR's goal of bringing the vaccine by August 15 is 'impractical' and 'beyond reality'. The IASC stated that the vaccine is urgently needed but clinical trials are required scientifically to prepare the vaccine used on humans. Administrative approvals can be worked on, but scientific processes take a time that cannot be dealt with quickly without compromising scientific standards.

 

 

Hotel-restaurants will open in Maharashtra from Wednesday

 

The Maharashtra government allowed hotels outside the transition zone to operate with a 33 percent capacity from 8 July. A meeting was held between Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray and hoteliers on Sunday in which Uddhav said that the decision to reopen hotels and restaurants in the state would be taken after the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) was finalized. The state has 150 lakh hotels and 65,000 restaurants.

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