For the Imran Khan government of Pakistan, there is a well on one side and a ditch on the other. That is, they have to select one of these two options - this is what the experts believe.
Imran Khan can either save Pakistan from being a financial defaulter or can buy people's anger against his government.
Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government presented the Finance Bill in the National Assembly on Thursday. This is a supplementary finance bill, which will give the government of Pakistan the right to levy indirect taxes of 360 billion rupees or two billion dollars.
After the bill is passed, sales tax exemption of Rs 343 billion on machinery, pharma, and imported food items will be withdrawn. Apart from this, the rates of excise duty, income tax, sales tax in services will increase.
Opposition parties are alleging that the government has surrendered to the IMF. Pakistan Peoples Party chairman Bilawal Zardari Bhutto has said that the people of Pakistan will have to pay the price for the collusion of IMF and Imran Khan.
Bilawal Bhutto has said that the bill which has been brought to fulfill the conditions of IMF, will make Pakistan bankrupt. Senator Sherry Rehman of Pakistan Peoples Party said that Imran Khan's government is going to mortgage Pakistan. Sherry Rehman said that this bill is a threat to the security of the country.
Government compulsion
The government was reluctant to increase the tax, but it was necessary to approve a $1 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
There is a meeting of the IMF board on 12 January and in this, the loan to be given to Pakistan has to be approved. Before the board meeting, Pakistan has introduced this bill in Parliament.
Pakistan can introduce another bill under the pressure of the IMF. The name of this bill is – State Bank of Pakistan Amendment Bill.
If this bill is passed, then the central bank of Pakistan will get more autonomy. If the bill is passed, the central bank can refuse to lend to the government. Regarding this bill, the government has not given any indication whether the bill will be passed now or will be kept on hold.
Pakistan's central bank will get autonomy
Ahmed Naeem Salik, a research fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad in Pakistan from Nikkei Asia, said the second bill would completely free the central bank from government interference.
But there is a concern that indirect taxes may increase inflation. If inflation rises, people can also take to the streets. Imran Khan's government is going to increase indirect tax when his party PTI has suffered a major setback in the local body elections.
Experts also say that Imran Khan's government somehow has a majority in the National Assembly. There is also the possibility that if the bill is passed, allies supporting his government may distance themselves. If this happens then the government will fall.
Government's dilemma
Ahmed Naeem Salik says, “MPs from PTI and allies can be absent during the voting on the bill in Parliament because there is an election after 20 months and no leader would want to support the bill, which can lead to inflation. Is.''
But if the government does not pass the finance bill, then next month it will not get a loan of one billion dollars from the IMF. Pakistan has to get six billion dollars of loans in three years from the IMF.
Uzair Yonas, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank from Nikkei Asia, said, "Without the approval of the IMF, Pakistan will not get financial aid. Neither China nor Saudi is going to get help to fill this void. There will be tremendous pressure on Pakistan's currency Rupee, investor confidence will be lost, economic uncertainty will increase dramatically and the brunt of this will ultimately be borne by ordinary Pakistanis.
rising debt
The plight of Pakistan's economy can be gauged from the fact that it has had to take a loan of $ 4.6 billion in the last five months to maintain the budget deficit and foreign exchange reserves.
If the IMF does not get approval, that is, the bill is not passed, then it means that Pakistan will not be able to take loans from global institutions.
"The best situation would be for the government to convince the people," says Jonas. The government will have to tell that there will be a morning after darkness.
Some experts also say that the IMF is trying to discipline Pakistan's economy and Pakistan should do this.
plight of Pakistan
In the same month, Shabbar Zaidi, former chairman of the Pakistan Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), said that Pakistan was insolvent.
He had said, "The government's claim that all is well and things are going well. All these things are lies.'' Shabbar Zaidi said this during a speech at Hamdard University recently.
However, Zaidi later clarified it on Twitter. He said that only the three-minute clip of his speech is being talked about. Zaidi said that he had also spoken of a solution.
Zaidi had said, "Who had taken the loan, nothing would be done by taunting him. This is the debt of Pakistan. Interest rates should be decided logically. The progress of any country in the world is based on exports. We have to fix exports.
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