During the third wave of Corona in the country, 1.79 lakh new cases were reported on Sunday. Experts say that the peak of the third wave may come in early February. Then 4 to 8 lakh cases are expected to be registered daily. However, the peak of the third wave in Delhi and Mumbai can come much earlier only on January 15.
This claim has been made by Manindra Agarwal, Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at IIT Kanpur. They tell with the help of computer models how the pandemic is going to behave next. He also says that the third wave is likely to cross the country around March 15.
Peak will come after 5 days in Mumbai-Delhi
According to the Indian Express, Professor Aggarwal told that the peak of the third wave will come in Mumbai on January 15. The same will happen in Delhi as well. He said that we do not have the data for the whole country, but preliminary calculations suggest that the peak of the third wave can come in the country by the beginning of February. We estimate that 4 to 8 lakh cases will be registered in the country every day at the peak.
The faster the graph has risen in Delhi and Mumbai, the faster it is likely to fall. Corona cases are increasing rapidly all over the country. Accordingly, the peak will come in the country in a month and by mid-March, the third wave will end or subside in the country.
How does the calculation model work?
Professor Aggarwal said that it is true that epidemics are very random in themselves, but they also have some parameters. It is simple that if an infected person comes in contact with an uninfected person, then he will spread the infection. That is, the more people get infected, the more the infection will spread because the infection is being transferred. Based on this our model works.
Indian data quality is better than many countries
He said that while working on our model, we saw that the quality of Indian data is better than the data of many countries. It includes many advanced countries. Many times we do not praise ourselves, but this is an issue where we can appreciate our health ministry for providing better quality data.
In the first wave, a very strict lockdown was imposed, due to which the speed of infection was doubled. During the second wave, different states employed different strategies. States that imposed partial or complete lockdown could also slow down the pace of infection. That is, lockdown helps.
death toll is not accurate
Professor Aggarwal said that many studies have revealed that between 40 and 50 lakh deaths have taken place in the country. How can so many deaths disappear from the record? We are not living in the Stone Age that no one should record so many deaths. There have been reports from several states that crematoriums were full, with long queues outside them, but all this happened within just a week or 10 days – when the second wave was at its peak. When it is seen as an average across the entire pandemic, it will not look much. Therefore, according to me, the actual number of deaths that have been recorded will be ten times more. 2 or 3 times more likely to occur.
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