Despite the ban on the export of wheat, its prices in the domestic market are not coming down. Wheat prices have softened by just 54 paise per kg in the retail market in 12 days since the ban. There are many reasons for the costly wheat. According to experts, rising global prices and reduction in wheat production in the country have kept the prices firm.
India had imposed a ban on wheat exports on May 13. Its price in the global market on that day was $ 1,167.2 per Basel. On May 17, it rose further to $1,284 per bushel (equivalent to 27.216 kg). However, on May 25, the price declined slightly to $ 1,128 per bushel. Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory, says, Wheat prices are increasing in the global market. Along with this, the fall in production due to scorching heat in India is also responsible for strength. Unless there is a reduction in the prices in the global market, there will be no fall in the prices in the domestic market.
the problem for a few months and
Kedia said, as the supply is affected due to the Russo-Ukraine war, the global market is bullish. There is some relief for India because we have sufficient stock of wheat due to better production for three-four years. Still, one will have to wait a few months for the cheaper price.
splatter relief on a hot griddle
Date Price Per Quintal Price Per Kg
May 13, 2022 Rs 2,334 Rs 23.34
May 25, 2022 Rs 2,280 Rs 22.80
cheap 54 rupees 54 paise
70 lakh tonnes exported so far
India has already exported 70.30 lakh tonnes of wheat till March 21, 2022. Out of these, a maximum of 39.37 lakh tonnes of wheat has been exported to Bangladesh. The share of Sri Lanka stood at 5.80 lakh tonnes and that of the United Arab Emirates at 4.70 lakh tonnes. Earlier, 20.70 lakh tonnes of wheat were sent out in 2020-21.
8 percent drop in production
Wheat production in the country is expected to decline by 7-8 percent this year. For the crop year 2021-22, earlier a target of 111.3 million tonnes of wheat production was set. This has been reduced to 10.5 to 106 million tonnes at present. In the crop year 2020-21, 109.5 million tonnes of wheat were produced in the country.
Such inflation happens every decade
Kedia says that apart from these reasons, there is a cycle of inflation in the country. It is formed once every 8-10 years. The last cycle of inflation was witnessed between 2007-11 when prices skyrocketed. Due to the current cycle, we are currently stuck in energy inflation, which has registered an increase in the cost of production. Inflation in edible oil reached double digits last year.
Improvement only when supplies from Ukraine open up
Anuj Gupta, Vice President (Commodities) IIFL Securities says that till the time the Black Sea (sea) area does not open, the global prices will not fall. For this, the end of the Russia-Ukraine war is necessary. After the opening of this zone, as soon as the supply starts, there will be a sudden fall in the prices of wheat in the global market, which will also bring relief on the domestic front. Russia and Ukraine account for 25 percent of the global wheat supply.
so the ban will continue
Due to the prevailing situation, the ban on wheat exports will continue. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal says that there is uncertainty around the world. In such a situation, if we start exporting, then the possibility of hoarding may increase. This will not benefit the countries which need food grains. This decision of ours will not affect the global markets, as well as India's exports in the global market, which are less than one percent.
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