Coronavirus 'Transition to peak, impact reduced until February'

Discussions have intensified with Covid-19 reaching a climax in India. The epidemic reached its peak in September according to mathematical estimates of the government-constituted Covid-19 supermodel committee, and maybe largely over by early next year. The 10-member committee, headed by Professor M. Vidyasagar of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Hyderabad, has said that the epidemic should be halted by mid-February next year and the number of active (symptomatic) patients of Covid-19 by that time is 1.06. Can live up to crores. According to the study of the committee, the Covid-19 antibody has developed in 30 percent of the total population of India.

Committee chairman M Vidyasagar said, 'It will not happen that by 2021 the number of infections will be zero by the end of February, but it will be so low that the country will easily deal with it. We should understand that the level of infection will not reach zero level so soon. In epidemiology, this stage is also called the endemic phase, in which the disease is confined to a particular place and the infection does not progress. Many epidemiologists believe that it will take at least 8 to 10 months for the Covid-19 infection to cease completely. However, studies have been conducted assuming that people will take adequate precautions and keep using masks and hand sanitizers while maintaining adequate physical distance from each other.

A serosurvey by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) found that by the end of August, 7 percent of the people in the country had come under infection. The committee had estimated that 14 percent of people had developed an immunity against the virus. The study also said that the number of new infections a month could be as high as 26 lakh in the coming festivals and winter season. Something similar was seen in Kerala when the number of infected people increased significantly after Onam. The committee also took into account various scenarios related to the lockdown during the study. The committee found that had the government not imposed a lockdown, the total number of patients with symptoms of Covid-19 infection would have peaked in June and by August more than 2.5 million people would have died. The committee said that at the time of reaching the peak in September, there were 1 million active cases in India, and deaths were limited to 1 lakh. The study also claimed that there is no need for a second lockdown in the country and that by the end of February, the infection in both the Surats will stop anyway. It has been found in the study that the migration of migrant workers did not greatly accelerate the transition in the country. According to the study, if these people had been allowed to flee before the lockdown, then it could have suffered a big loss.

The study gave examples of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Vidyasagar said, "Some workers returned to these two states would be infected with Covid-19, which would have increased the cases immediately, but after that, the net of infection did not spread." Vidyasagar did not agree with the argument that the government should have imposed a lockdown after allowing these migrant laborers to flee. He said, 'It would have had terrible consequences. Where these migrants were working, they were kept in isolation for a few weeks, which certainly proved to be an effective strategy in stopping the spread of the virus. This committee included representatives from IIT Kanpur, Christian Medical College-Vellore, Integrated Defense Staff, National Institute of Virology-Pune, National Institute of Epidemiology etc.

No community transition in the country

Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said on Sunday that community infection of coronaviruses is limited in some districts of select states and is not happening across the country. Harshvardhan said this on social media in the sixth edition of Sunday's dialogue. He was replying to a question from a participant who referred to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's statement that cases of community infection were coming up in her state. Harsh Vardhan said, "Community infection of Covid-19 can occur in different parts of many states including West Bengal, and especially in densely populated areas." He said that this is not happening across the country and community transition is limited to a few districts in some states.