Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan is going through the most difficult phase of his political career. The no-confidence motion of the opposition is not letting them breathe a sigh of relief. Today the debate on the no-confidence motion brought against him in the Parliament of Pakistan will start.
In recent times, all the tricks have been played in the politics of Pakistan. Several allies have withdrawn support from the ruling Tehreek-e-Insaf party government one after the other. As far as the figures in Parliament are concerned, the upper hand seems to be leaning towards the opposition.
The opposition's no-confidence motion needs the support of 172 MPs in the National Assembly of 342 MPs. After going with the opposition of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement on Tuesday, the opposition now has the support of 175 MPs.
Imran Khan now has only 164 MPs.
Imran Khan, who came to power in July 2018 with a promise to uproot corruption and bring the economy back on track, does not want to leave the chair without a fight. On Sunday, he held a big rally in Islamabad, which made it seem that he is still very popular among his supporters.
Apart from roaring against his arch-rivals, Imran Khan was also seen waving a letter at this rally.
He claimed that the letter contained evidence of a foreign conspiracy against him. But even after making the promise, Imran Khan has not made this letter public.
Fighting with the army?
Imran Khan does not need to look abroad to find his opponent. His government has lost the support of the people due to record-breaking inflation and uncontrollable foreign debt.
Uzair Yunus is the director of the Atlantic Council based in Washington. He explains, "Look at inflation in this way - from January 2020 to March 2022, the inflation rate of food items in India is 7%. During this period, the inflation rate of Pakistan has been 23%."
But because of the rift in Imran's relationship with the Pakistan Army, his downfall is visible. This is the same army that has been said to be responsible for bringing Imran Khan to power. However, both Imran and the army have denied the allegation.
Many analysts believe that relations between the army and Imran started deteriorating in October last year. Then Imran Khan refused to sign the appointment of the new chief of Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency Inter-State Intelligence i.e. ISI.
Political commentator Arifa Noor feels that relations between the military and the civil government in Pakistan have a long history of the conflict as the army has ruled Pakistan itself for almost half the time since 1947.
But Noor believes that there was a rift between the army and Imran over the issue of selecting the successor of General Faiz Hameed in the ISI.
Imran Khan's mistake
Singapore researcher Abdul Basit also agrees with this assessment and says that the whole matter is about Imran Khan's arrogance and obstinate attitude. Earlier, topics like appointments in ISI were decided behind the scenes but this time Imran Khan made the mistake of making it public.
Abdul Basit says, "This time Imran Khan has crossed the 'Red Line' of the army. Although Imran Khan later agreed to make the army's favorite general the ISI chief, by then the distance had increased too much. "
But the army and Imran Khan vehemently deny any rift between the two.
Earlier, twice in Pakistan, Prime Ministers have had to give up power due to a no-confidence motion. But proposals against Benazir Bhutto in 1989 and Shaukat Aziz in 2006 were rejected.
But this time Imran Khan's defeat is certain because of the equation of Parliament. Now even if the rebel MPs of PTI do not vote with the opposition, Imran's defeat is certain. The government has filed a case in the Supreme Court against the rebel MPs of PTI. The party wants that his votes should not be counted and he should be sacked from Parliament for life.
Meanwhile, members of the Prime Minister's cabinet are meeting allies and trying to appear confident of their victory.
Uzair Yunus believes that Imran Khan has lost the opportunity to keep allies on his side and even if he comes out of this storm, then his journey ahead is going to be very difficult.
He said, "I think he should announce the election. Even if he survives this no-confidence motion, he will be under tremendous pressure to fix the economy."
But Abdul Basit says that the chances of Imran Khan winning the no-confidence motion are negligible. He says, "Life will be very difficult in the current situation. It will be impossible to do legislative work. That's why I am seeing the possibility of general elections in the coming six months."
So what's the plan?
Even though the opponents are trying to oust Imran from power, Imran Khan himself feels that he is not being given credit for the work done during his tenure.
Some analysts say that despite the challenges of Kovid, the PTI government has helped the people. He gives an example of Pakistan's war against Kovid. In a country of 22 crores, only 15 lakh cases came and 30 thousand deaths occurred. This figure is much less compared to India.
Commentator Arifa Noor says that the biggest success of this government is the healthcare program started in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Arifa Noor says, “This can be a big slogan in any future elections. Some people may not have felt the problems related to Kovid but people know about the health card. Its effect Will happen in the future too."
But what does the opposition want to achieve by toppling an elected government? That too in a country where no prime minister has completed his five-year term to date.
Does the opposition have any plan?
But will this alliance of opposition be able to rid Pakistan of its economic and social problems?
Arifa Noor says, "At this time the opposition is seeing opportunism. Unfortunately, there are no rules and regulations for the transfer of power in our country. Whenever someone is in power, people outside power try to destabilize him."
Abdul Basit says that the only plan of the opposition is to topple the government, no homework is visible on what they will do after it falls. Basit feels that Pakistan is heading towards a year-and-a-half-long political instability.
Uzair Yunus also admits that the opposition has no plan other than to remove Imran Khan.
Yunus says, "If the opposition comes to power, it will have to take many unpopular decisions. These decisions will have a political price which they will have to pay."
They say that no matter who wins, the people of Pakistan will lose. Future elections will be polarizing and until they do, a period of instability will continue.
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