In the Russia-Ukraine war, where most countries are standing against Russia, India is seen in Russia's court even after being neutral. India was absent during the resolutions against Russia in the United Nations Security Council and the General Assembly. Didn't even criticize Russia. Not only this, but he also signed an agreement to buy crude oil from Russia at an affordable rate. This has shocked America. Experts believe that there are three reasons, why India is giving preference to Russia over America.
The first reason is that it is in India's geographical and strategic position to maintain proximity to Russia. The second reason is that India is a major arms buyer of Russia. The third reason is that India's closeness with America has not been like that of Russia. India and Russia are already big allies in the energy sector.
Russia is more helpful in cracking down on China
America seems to be annoyed by this stand of India. Recently, speaking to reporters in Washington, US President Joe Biden said that India's stand has not been very solid when it comes to criticizing Russia.
America is pressurizing India to come to its side, but it will not be easy for India to do so.
Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow of the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis, which works under the Ministry of Defense of India, believes that it is not easy for India to leave Russia.
Explaining the reason, she says, "India has two parts, one upper part which is landlocked, that is, surrounded by land on all four sides and the other is coastal India and the lower part of Indian land and is surrounded by sea on three sides of India. For the security of the landlocked part, active participation with Russia is necessary. While in the coastal area, cooperation with the US-led Quad is necessary to reduce the influence of China.
The biggest security concern of India is that China, adjacent to its northern border, is getting stronger. After the violent clash between the soldiers of India and China in Galwan, the military tension between the two countries has increased and the armies of both countries have also increased their presence on the border.
Isaac Stone Fish, a defense analyst and author of the book America Second, says, "India's biggest security challenge is not Pakistan, but China. India's historical ties with Russia help both countries maintain a balance against China and That's why these relationships are so important."
Don't trust America's stand
The question before India is that if the tension with China increases, will America come forward to help it?
Professor Swasti Rao says, "India would have liked if America could counter Russia and China together, but it is not so. The biggest drawback may be that America has enough resources to deploy here." Not only this, but America's attention away from the Indo-Pacific region and the Quad can also be a reason.
India has no security pact with America
India is a member of the recently formed Quad Alliance against China (QUAD), but the Quad is not a military alliance and there is no military agreement between its members.
It is also important to understand here that India is not like other quad member countries. The fact here is that Japan is one of the quad countries that have strong security agreements with the US.
Japan signed this agreement in 1960. Since then, Japan has been under US protection. So Japan can criticize Russia.
Australia can also easily criticize Russia because the US, Australia, and New Zealand also have a security agreement called ANZUS.
India is the only member country of the Quad that does not have an agreement with the US.
Professor Rao says, "In such a situation, India stands alone when it comes to its regional security. That is why India is unable to take a clear stand criticizing Russia. For India its national interests are paramount."
There is no area related to defense where India and Russia do not have a strong relationship. However, in recent years, India has bought Rafale fighter jets from France. Despite this, most of the aircraft in the Indian Air Force are from Russia. Russia also transfers technology to India and India is also dependent on Russia for the repair of its defense equipment.
Professor Rao says, "Another important thing is that we need Russia for many reasons. These include defense needs to other things. India currently meets 50-80 percent of its defense needs from Russia. India Russia It is not even criticizing because India's all advanced weapons come from Russia. For example, recently India has bought a very advanced anti-missile defense system S-400 from Russia. India has also received a consignment of it. SSN and BrahMos are also examples.
America engaged in bringing India into its court
The US has offered defense deals with India but these do not include its most advanced weapons.
Professor Rao says, "America does not sell its top weapons to India. So far America has made offers to sell only obsolete weapons and technology to India."
America has been making pressure to pull India towards it and in recent times also America has made such efforts.
A US State Department spokesperson said, “India has a long-standing historical defense relationship with Russia. These relations have matured at a time when the US and its allies were ready for such a relationship with India, but Times and needs were different then. Times have changed. Now we are more willing and able to have stronger security cooperation with India. This is a bilateral relationship that has deepened in many ways over the past 25 years. President George's Relations with India have improved and deepened in many respects since Bush's reign.
However, defense analysts view these claims of the US with suspicion. Isaac Stone Fish says, "The question is, to what extent will India go to not isolate Russia? And if America does not like it, to what extent will America supply arms to India and against China? To what extent will he go to protect India?
At the same time, to woo India, America is claiming that it is now an ally of India's choice. A US State Department spokesperson said, "The fact that we are now India's ally, whether it is a matter of shared interests or a free and secure Indo-Pacific region. We are now India's ally of choice, such as That we are there for our other allies around the world."
India needs Russia in the Middle East
America is withdrawing from the Middle East and has left Afghanistan. The security situation here has also changed. The challenge before India is to keep itself relevant in these areas.
Professor Rao says, “India also needs Russia to maintain its influence in Central Asia and to keep itself relevant in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Especially after the US has left the Middle East and Afghanistan. The US was the main security provider in these areas earlier.
India is also a part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and better relations with Russia are necessary to maintain its activity here. Not only this, India needs Russia to stay in the North-South Maritime Corridor which has Iran, Russia, and Central Asian countries besides India. The point to note here is that Pakistan and China are not in this.
Professor Rao says, "It is because of all these reasons that India cannot afford to spoil relations with Russia. India must put its national interest first."
What if Russia weakens?
It's been a month since the Ukraine war and Russia is yet to bow down to Ukraine. Ukraine remains on the battlefield, despite the massive devastation and the homelessness of more than 10 million people.
Western defense analysts estimate that things are getting tougher for Russia. Russia has also been isolated in the international community. If Russia becomes weak in this war, then India may have to make many difficult decisions to decide its way forward.
Omor Anas, who teaches international relations at Ankara Yildirim Bayazit University in Turkey, believes that if Russia weakens, it will not be an ideal situation for India.
Anas says, "If Russia weakens in international politics, then India will also be weak directly, there is no doubt about it. India will have no choice again. If Russia will be weak or isolated, then India will have to go straight to America's side. This will not be a very good position."
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