After the attack on Ukraine, three resolutions came in different international forums condemning Russia. Of all the three, India considered it justified to be absent. Also, emphasizing the selection of words in his statement every time, he suggested a way out of the conversation.
PM Modi has spoken to the President of Russia twice and on the other hand, also participated in the meeting of the Quad on Thursday. Narendra Modi reiterated that all concerned should take the path of dialogue and diplomacy.
Opinions of many former diplomats and diplomacy analysts are divided regarding India's stand after Russia attacks Ukraine.
Some experts are considering India's absence as silent support towards Russia, some are calling it a part of India's foreign policy. So some are saying that the time is right when India needs to select one side.
There are some facts at the root of all three types of arguments, which need to be understood.
Who is not to blame in Russia and Ukraine?
Former diplomat Rakesh Sood says that it is important to understand history to reach any conclusion. India has taken the decision only after looking at history.
He says, "After the attack on Ukraine, the leaders of the West are saying that Ukraine's joining NATO is not on their agenda. Were talking about 'Nato's open-door policy. In such a situation, if India looks to stand with one side, nothing will be achieved.
So does India want to achieve friendship on both sides by absenteeism in voting?
In response to this, Rakesh Sood asks a question. "With whom can India stand after all? Which of the two sides is innocent? In today's date, if Russia attacked then it is guilty. Looking at the history of why Russia attacked, then the other side is guilty. This is the reason why The fight between Russia and Ukraine may seem superficially between two countries, but in reality, it is a fight between big countries - Russia and America, Russia and NATO countries, due to which the relations of big countries are strained. This is the result of mismanagement of both sides, which has a long history. Because of this, India cannot stand with anyone."
fear of china
Ghazala Wahab is the executive editor of Force magazine.
In a conversation with the BBC, she says, "India is supporting Russia in a way even by not voting on the censure motion brought on Russia. India is not following the policy of non-alignment, but the policy of living with each side." is following. By doing this the Modi government has put India's security on the shoulders of other countries."
She describes this decision of PM Modi as a compulsion of the central government and also enumerates the reasons behind it.
"India's relations with Russia are very good. Whenever help is needed against China, India goes to Russia as a strategy. Not only in Ladakh, whenever China is embroiled in the Indian border dispute, Modi The government has knocked on the door of Russia. India believes that if any country influences China, it belongs to Russia."
Dependence on Russia for military equipment
Apart from the China angle, Ghazala also considers India's dependence on Russia in the defense sector as the reason for the Modi government's latest stand.
She says, "To reduce its dependence on Russia in the purchase of arms, India is now buying arms from France, America, Israel, Britain. But we also have another kind of dependence on Russia in the defense sector. If in India If DRDO makes missiles, India gets help from Russia, not from other countries. What Russia can help in nuclear submarines, the US cannot do. The kind of technology Russia gives to India, other countries do not. From this point of view, Russia is the 'base point' of the policies of India's defense and security system.
north-south transport corridor
Apart from China and Russia's help in the defense sector, there are many other important aspects of India's stand on which Dr. Swasti Rao, an expert in defense and foreign affairs, throws light.
She explains that there is a 7200 km long network of ships, rail, and road routes for freight between India, Iran, Russia, Central Asian countries, which is called the North-South Transport Corridor.
This trade transport corridor is very important for India. Apart from Chabahar, India is part of only this one trade network in this area. This is also such a corridor, which is not a part of Pakistan and China. India needs to maintain good relations with Russia to remain in this network.
She further says that India wants to increase its intervention in Central Asia. On 26 January this year, India had also invited the heads of state of Central Asian countries. India is keen to increase business and connectivity in these countries and Russia has its influence on these countries. In this respect too, India cannot annoy Russia. In Afghanistan too, India will need Russia to maintain its relevance.
India is also a part of the quad
In such a situation, the question arises that if Russia is such an important partner for India, then why does India not want to openly look towards Russia?
To find the answer, we need to understand the groups of which India has become a part.
One such group is the Quad. Amidst the Russia-Ukraine crisis, an important meeting of this group was also held on Thursday in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi also participated virtually.
The last meeting of this group was held in September 2021.
Ghazala says, "By joining the Quad, India feels that America can help India if it is needed against China. Because of this, India does not want to take America's displeasure."
The Quad Group is a group formed from the perspective of 'military cooperation' between the US, Japan, India, and Australia. But it did not talk about 'high-technology' transfer. This is likely to happen in the coming days. If such agreements are made in the quad, then India can also get the benefit.
India's role in the Indo-Pacific
Professor Swasti Rao puts the same point of Ghazala in this way.
She says India's openly supporting Russia means standing with the anti-American camp.
It is important to remember here that the US has not yet imposed sanctions against India under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for buying S-400 missile systems from Russia.
By keeping India in 'Quad', America has tried to show in a way that America also considers India's role in the Indo-Pacific region as important. Although Japan is also a part of the quad which is in this area.
Through Quod, India, together with America, can maintain friendship not only with China but also with ASEAN countries and Australia.
This will help India to strengthen its position in the region of Asia.
India as a regional power in Asia
Ghazala says, "India is not a big superpower in the world like America and China. Now India's influence as a regional superpower in South Asia is decreasing. India's thinking about countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives was that if we help them, they will listen to us. But it is no longer like that. All these countries have also made their different policies. India is also trying to establish a completely new relationship with these countries.
On the other hand, today the world order is becoming largely China-centric. The influence of China is increasing on other countries, on their policies, and in the politics of the world.
India needs both Russia and America for this.
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