The campaigning for the first phase of the three-phase polling scheduled for election in 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly has ended. Votes will be cast on Thursday for 71 seats of this round.
How power-politics speaks head-on can be seen in the passionate campaign of this election, despite the dangerous epidemic like Corona. It seems that the fear of transition is neither in the candidates nor in the voters.
While the number of infected people is increasing and deaths due to this are also not stopping. The joining of two ministers of the state government in the list of dead reached the thousand and still the treatment of many prominent leaders including Sushil Modi and Mangal Pandey in the hospital is showing the seriousness of the situation.
Well, now let's take a look at the political ups and downs in this election. Here two aspects have emerged mainly during the election campaign in the areas related to the first round of voting.
One is that the alliance of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal-United (JDU) in the state is in a tough challenge, slipping from the initial better position. The second aspect is that the 'mahagathbandhan' of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and the Left parties (CPI, CPM, and CPI-ML) is seeing a sudden surge.
Employment issue
Issues, promises, controversies, or infighting that have become the main causes of both these situations are also giving a remarkable indication of the changing political outlook of Bihar. For example, basic questions like employment separate from caste-based politics have emerged.
The biggest reason behind the tough challenge to the ruling BJP-JDU alliance with the 'Grand Alliance' is that the issue of unemployment becomes a major electoral issue. And this agenda has been set by RJD's Tejashwi Yadav.
Tejashwi has announced that if his government is formed, ten lakh unemployed people of the state will be given permanent government jobs in the first cabinet meeting itself. How they will give the way, but they have also raised questions about the implementation in this regard.
But, as an issue arises in the electoral environment, similarly unemployed youths have taken it up hands and raised crowds in the meetings of Tejaswi. On the other hand, this challenge had such a profound impact on the BJP, that this party also announced to provide employment opportunities to 19 lakh people under various activities.
The thing to note here is that while the promise of government jobs on one side and employment opportunities on the other hand is assured, it is obvious that government jobs will create attraction.
The natural environment turned against the government
Tejaswi Yadav's meetings, besides the crowd associated with Lalu Yadav's Muslim-Yadav equation, also gather all the workers who came to their homes from other states after suffering huge problems in the initial corona lockdown but were forced to face unemployment.
However, the trend of the backward-downtrodden people seems to be towards JDU-BJP, who have received free food grains in addition to cash from the Center and Bihar government. Nitish Kumar's influence is still there among voters belonging to the most backward and Mahadalit class, especially women voters.
The aggressive propaganda by the RJD and the Left parties so far against Nitish and BJP has given more strength to the natural environment against the power of 15 years. The Congress, the constituent of the grand alliance, is a little weak here, because of a situation of discord or controversy in the party itself, from ticket-sharing disturbances to organizational preparation.
You can think that if the Congress, which is under pressure to take 70 seats in the Grand Alliance, will fall behind in winning the right seats, then how difficult it will be for the Grand Alliance to reach power! This apprehension is considered a big relief for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Nitish on the target of the lamp
Now, the big controversy related to the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which has put the NDA in the biggest internal problem.
LJP President Chirag Paswan launched a fierce campaign against Chief Minister Nitish, he was first said to be indirectly inspired by BJP but later, under the indignant pressure of Nitish Kumar, BJP had to make a public announcement that LJP is no longer part of NDA is.
On the other hand, Chirag Paswan, despite expressing his unwavering support to the Prime Minister, kept his stubbornness against Nitish Kumar's party JDU and fighting elections without any alliance. At the same time, Chirag is also saying that except BJP Nitish Kumar, if the BJP wants to make someone the Chief Minister, the LJP will cooperate fully.
That means, by the first round of voting, the challenge of two young leaders of Bihar in front of Nitish Kumar, the crisis of trust in the old partner BJP and many kinds of natural public dissatisfaction arising from 15 years of power-leadership are present.
The BJP is also impressed by this difficult pack but, with the help of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign and some central special assistance for Bihar, he also hopes to overcome the electoral tide.
Crowd crowds in tejashwi meetings
On the other hand, the 'mahagathbandhan' is being encouraged, the circumstances behind Nitish's opposition and the crowd gathering in the meetings of the people is being considered as the main reason. Whereas surveys or opinion polls of major television channels are showing the possibility of NDA remaining in power here.
It is important to discuss here that in this election, the NDA can get help in some seats from Jitan Ram Manjhi of Hindustani Awam Morcha and Mukesh Sahni of Vikas Insan Party.
On the other hand, Bahujan Samaj Party and Asaduddin Owaisi's alliance with Upendra Kushwaha of Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and AIMIM's Asaduddin Owaisi can show the effect of cutting 'Mahagathbandhan' votes in some seats and winning in some seats.
Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav is one of the leaders of Bihar, who despite being active in helping people and speaking well on every issue, has not been able to get rid of his volatile and controversial image. So do not be surprised if this election also disappoints them.
Straightforward election photo
Till the first phase of polling, the election picture of a straight-faced contest between the NDA and the 'Grand Alliance' has emerged here.
It also seems that the signal that the first round of voting will bring, may provide some more indications of possibilities or apprehensions for the two main rival alliances in the remaining two phases.
In the assembly constituencies where the first round of voting is going to take place, the then JDU-RJD's 'Grand Alliance' won 48 seats in the 2015 assembly elections.
Among them, RJD won 25 and JDU candidates won 19.
This time too, despite the changed equation, the 'Grand Alliance' has set high hopes on those seats. Three candidates of CPI-ML won in these areas (Bhojpur).
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