In Gujarat, once again the opportunity has come to the people when they will elect the government for 5 years. Apart from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been ruling for 27 years, the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party are also reaching the Janata Darbar with a box of claims and promises. 4.9 crore voters of the state will register their decision on 1 and 5 December by pressing the button in the EVM and the decision will come out on 8 December. Various equations are being talked about who will win in the election and who will lose. One of the most important among them is what will be the attitude of Muslim voters, who have more than 10 percent share in 117 seats in the state.
Congress's stake, AAP-Owaisi's claim
The Congress, which has so far got the majority of the votes of Muslims in Gujarat, will have to work harder this time. The reason is that this time there is an alternative to AAP and Asaduddin Owaisi's party AIMIM. While AAP, which has become the first choice for minority voters in Delhi, is contesting all seats in Gujarat, Owaisi is also preparing to contest 30 Muslim-majority seats. In about 150 seats, where Muslims will have at least three options, including Congress, AAP, and BJP, elections will have to be held between four parties in about three dozen seats.
Congress may suffer loss, and BJP in the hope of profit
Congress has been very strong in Muslim majority seats. The Congress, which gave a tough fight to the BJP in the 2017 assembly elections, won 50 of the 117 seats with more than 10 percent Muslim voters. However, 62 seats went to BJP's account. Congress got 41.52 percent votes in these seats, while BJP captured 47.99 percent voter share. Of the 53 seats where Muslim voters constitute up to 20 percent, the Congress won 22 and the BJP won 31. Of the 12 seats in which Muslims are more than 20 percent, 5 were occupied by the Congress and 6 by the BJP. Political experts believe that Gujarat has been very sensitive to communal polarisation. A large section of Muslim voters have been voting for the Congress and most of the Hindu voters have been voting for the BJP. But this time you and Owaisi's claim can change the equation to some extent. In case of division in the Muslim vote bank, BJP can get benefit from it.
BJP's eye
It is not that BJP does not need Muslim voters or that the party is not trying to cater to minority voters. Much water flowed in Sabarmati after the 2002 communal riots and the situation in the state has changed a lot since then. Generally, incidents of communal tension in Gujarat have been negligible in the last two decades. The BJP, which has described PM Modi's slogan 'Sabka Saath-Sabka Vikas' as its motto, says that Muslims have also benefited from the development and public welfare schemes without any discrimination. Accusing Congress of duping Muslims, BJP says that it is trying to connect Muslims with the mainstream of development. The BJP has tried to increase its penetration in Muslim-majority seats by running a 'Minority Friend' campaign. After the law against triple talaq, BJP has got a large number of Muslim women votes in states like UP and it is likely to happen in Gujarat as well.
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