If we look at the first six-seven months of the year 2020, the violent skirmish between the soldiers of India and China at an altitude of 4000 meters in the Himalayas is certainly an event that has been recorded in history. Both countries agreed that there would be no firing on the border. But the tremendous scuffle that occurred in contrasting geographical conditions led to the death of soldiers.
After this, there was a tension between the two countries, which had never been seen in the last several decades. India and China, equipped with nuclear weapons, are not only neighbors, but also the two most populous countries of the world. Both claim to be the world's two largest economies by the end of this century.
But the violent clash in the Galvan Valley in June this year has given rise to many questions. It also includes the question of whether India vs China, the biggest quarrel of the 21st century, can prove to be the biggest 'Rivalry'.
To find out the answer to this question, we talked to some experts.
Skirmish between two nuclear forces
Our first expert is Chris Doherty, a senior fellow in the Center for New American Securities Defense Program, who says, "When such skirmishes occur on the border, there is a concern in one part of the brain that it also causes conflict Maybe, especially when both countries have nuclear weapons. "
The Indo-China border in the Himalayan mountains is more than 3 thousand kilometers long. In June, both India and China claim the area in which the soldiers of the two countries clashed in the Galvan river valley. Chris Doherty believes, "Here you also fight with your vehicles while battling inaccessible mountains and lack of oxygen because it is difficult for them to walk as well. The path you walk can be destroyed in a landslide or avalanche anytime "It is very challenging to move forward on these paths."
In the area where there was a fatal crash, both sides have been building roads to improve petrol in that area. According to Chris Doherty, "China has spent a lot in the last decade to improve the infrastructure in places like Tibet and Xinjiang, so that there can be quick movement of its troops. In response, India did the same for itself. Better infrastructure on one side of the border increases the feeling of insecurity on the other side. "
India believes that its army can give a befitting reply to the People's Liberation Army of China. However, China's military budget is three times more than India's defense budget. In such a situation, when the soldiers of the two countries came back again, like Galvan Valley, whose pan can be heavy?
On this question, Chris Doherty says, "China may seize some of the land and occupy some strategically important positions. But for every inch of land, China has to pay a big price in this fight Although India will also suffer losses, soldiers will be killed from both sides, but nobody wins in this battle
What will be the effect on the economic front
Our other expert is Anant Krishnan who is a journalist from the profession and the author of the book 'India's China Challenge'. In this book, Anant Krishnan has described how India has been affected financially due to the advancement of China.
Anant Krishnan explains, "By the beginning of the year 2000, India and China had little business relationship. But in the last 20 years, the business grew rapidly. India started liking goods made in China and China became India's biggest trading partner. Gone. The annual two-way trade reached $ 94 billion. Of this, India bought $ 75 billion in goods from China. "
That is, during this time China is less on India, whereas India has been more dependent on China. After the bloody clash in the Galvan Valley, the boycott of goods coming from China in India echoed. India banned 59 Chinese apps, including TicketTock, popular among the youth.
Anant Krishnan believes in this, "The complete boycott of goods made in China and China's investment is neither practical nor possible. India is dependent on imports from China in many sectors. The price at which China makes goods, There are not many countries doing that. "
The pharmaceutical industry is one such sector. India buys a large proportion of the ingredients used to make generic medicines from China. Similarly, auto parts, products made from iron and steel, and pesticides coming from China are essential for the Indian economy. China's investment in India cannot be ignored.
According to Anant Krishnan, "China has emerged as a major investor in India. China has invested around $ 5-6 billion in India's start-ups. China has invested heavily in India's big tech companies. " This is the reason why the war with China on the economic front is also not in favor of India.
Anant Krishnan says, "I think that where India will benefit, the government will welcome the investment coming from China. For example, a factory is made by the investment of China and it gives employment to the people of India. But at the same time where the matter Will be sensitive, the Government of India will investigate that investment a lot. "
India has been trying for a long time that foreign companies that are investing in China, India should be pleased with them instead of China. But Anant Krishnan believes that this strategy of the Indian government has not been very successful.
He says, "The government has been trying for many years to make India a powerhouse in manufacturing. Narendra Modi also started a Make in India campaign after coming to power for the first time in 2014. But in the last six years, "India's dependence on China has increased rather than decreased."
Despite this, India has a big power and that strength is India's huge market. This is the reason why every Chinese company wants to turn to India.
Future of Asia
Our third specialist is Tanvi Madan who is a Senior Fellow in the Brookings Institute's Foreign Policy Program in Washington DC. Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-India Relations During the Cold War is his recent book.
Tanvi Madan says, "There are many reasons for the conflict between India and China and these reasons are increasing. The India-China relationship is a great example of this that increasing economic relations do not reduce political tension."
Referring to the deaths of soldiers in the Galvan Valley, she says, "This is a turning point in India-China relations. It may have serious consequences in the future. It may not affect the whole world, but Asia It will affect politics and relations of Asian countries. "
After tensions with India in the Galvan Valley, it seemed that China was trying to reduce the tension. China also has to see South-China-Sea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Before the recent border conflict and tensions, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have met warmly many times.
Tanvi Madan believes that there is some commonality between the two leaders, which needs to be considered, "both have shown themselves as a strong person. A strong man who can take his country to a new phase Whether it is the Chinese Dream or the matter of making India great again.
But China has been trying to become the boss of Asia, while India feels that it does not need a boss like China. After the conflict in the Galvan Valley, India's attention has shifted to its diplomatic partners.
Tanvi Madan says, "I think that after the incident of June 15, India's policymakers would have understood it better than their policy may not always be mid-way. Especially when the talk And be of China. They will have to bow towards America, sometimes they will have to go towards countries like Russia. "
India gets weapons from Russia. But Russia also has good relations with China. So during the recent tensions between India and China, Russia got a little confused. On the other hand, Pakistan's attitude towards India is well known.
Against the backdrop of these equations, Tanvi Madan says, "China would like to increase its cooperation with Pakistan more and more. Pakistan is also an opponent of India. I doubt that China, moving beyond Pakistan, surrounds India - Nepal, Sri Lanka, Will try to increase its presence and influence in Bangladesh and Maldives. "
Tanvi Madan also believes that India would like to have diplomatic partners who would not only help China balance it, but also increase India's military and economic capabilities. In such a situation, in addition to the USA and European countries, India will also be focused on Australia, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
Wolf warrior diplomacy
Our last expert is Yu Jieye, a research fellow on China affairs at Chatham House, a UK think tank. In the past few years, she is referring to 'Tevon' of China, she says, "Wolf Warrior diplomacy is a new jumla. This jumla comes from a film called Wolf Warrior. It is one of those popular films in China. It shows that the People's Liberation Army of China is capable of saving the country and teaching a lesson to foreigners. "
He believes that the stern approach that China has now taken in the broader scenario, there is little scope for agreements with other countries. This is the reason why Chinese ambassadors have been seen arguing in their host countries.
In recent months, when the coronavirus came out as an epidemic, China tried to appear like a vanguard. Yu Jieye says, "China felt they had overcome the Covid-19, so China has a fundamental reason for sending PPE kits around the world and sharing their experience of the solution. It all sounds very positive to hear. "
Yu Jieye believes that even in the case of Corona, there was no sweetness in the tone of China. India was one of the countries that criticized China's view on the Corona epidemic and claimed that China is taking advantage of this crisis to increase its influence in the region.
Yu Jieye also believes that China's increasing isolation with western countries can prove to be effective in favor of India.
She says, "I think that the atmosphere created after the border clash, India was able to take advantage of it. Nationalism was instilled in India as well. But, because of the geographical and economic tensions between the two countries How India can deny China is a different equation. "
Nevertheless, experts believe that due to the ever-increasing size of the economy and population, the importance of relations between India and China will not diminish in the future. Any competition between these two huge countries will increase their differences, which will also have a direct impact on the politics of Asia and the rest of the world.
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