Russia-Ukraine War: RBI may increase the repo rate by 0.75 percent by August, Ukraine crisis also due to an increase in inflation

The Russia-Ukraine war has a major role in the rising inflation in the country, SBI economists claimed on Monday. He said that 59 percent of the geopolitical tensions caused by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine contributed to the rise in inflation. SBI economists said that in the period of rising inflation, the inflation figure reached the level of 7.8 percent in April. He said that the RBI is once again ready to increase the repo rate to 5.15 percent before the epidemic.

Taking February as the basis, the effect of the Russo-Ukraine war on inflation has been studied. It has been found in this research that due to the ongoing war between these two countries, inflation in food, fuel, light, and transport has increased by 52 percent. Apart from this, due to the increase in input cost in the FMCG sector, the prices of commodities have increased by up to seven percent.

According to SBI Ecowrap, economists say that there is no hope of getting relief from rising inflation at the moment. At the same time, he says that there is a difference in the rising prices in urban and rural areas. The reason behind the increase in inflation in urban areas is an increase in the price of petroleum, whereas, in rural areas, the most effective has been seen due to an increase in food prices.

 According to a report by SBI, by August, the central bank will increase the repo rate by 75 bps or 0.75 percent. The second meeting of this financial year will be held in June and the third meeting in August. The report said that the RBI will increase the repo rate to 5.25 percent. It is currently at 4.5 percent. After August, the matter of increasing the rates may slow down a bit.

Along with this, economists have also asked RBI to look into the steps being taken by it. SBI economists have also asked SBI to look into whether these steps can bring down inflation in a meaningful way if the war-related standoff between Russia and Ukraine is not resolved soon.

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