More than 3 lakh new corona cases are coming out in India for the last 15 days. A record 4.12 lakh cases have been reported in the last 24 hours. Even after this, according to a model prepared by the advisors of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the second peak bus is about to arrive and by the end of June new cases will be reduced to 20 thousand per day.
According to a Bloomberg report, Prof. Manindra Aggarwal of IIT Kanpur has presented a model, based on this, Professor M. Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad said that the peak is going to come in a few days. Our projection says that by the end of June, the situation in the country will be like February, that is, by then the number of cases exposed daily will come down to 20 thousand. The same team had predicted a peak till last month i.e. mid-April, but then they proved to be wrong.
Expectations of an expert from the current Trent increased, 5 points
1. A team from the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore has predicted that the coming few weeks will be extremely difficult for India.
2. According to the team, if the current trend of cases and deaths continues, by June 11, the death toll from Corona will cross 4 lakh. Now, this figure has crossed 2 lakhs.
3. More than 3 lakh cases have been reported for the 15th consecutive day. Experts say that the current rise in transition is due to the new variants coming out in India.
4. Doctor Anuradha Mittal of Kailash Hospital Noida said that about 50 doctors of his acquaintance became corona positive despite taking both shots of the vaccine. It can also be caused by the continuously muted virus and the conditions in which doctors are working continuously.
5. New strains are also spreading to other countries from countries like India. In such a situation, the worldwide infection can be prolonged in the coming times.
Difficult to guess about the peak, the reason - the picture of the figures is not correct
According to a Bloomberg report, the new model adopted for Peak cannot be overstated. This model has also failed in the last month. Experts are saying that these figures are being underestimated. Neither testing has increased nor is the true picture of deaths coming out. At the same time, pictures of cremation ghats across the country are telling a different story. With this, all the assessments about peak are getting complicated.
The new forecast matches the forecasts of other scientists, with a second peak being reported around May 15. These forecasts are extremely important, as 4.12 lakh new cases were reported in the country in the last 24 hours. There were 3,980 deaths during this period. Even amidst these conditions, Prime Minister Modi has made it clear that he does not want to impose a national lockdown. However, partial or full lockdown is already in place in most states. Many states have sealed their borders.
4 guesses from experts, which turned out to be wrong
1. Last month, Vidyasagar's team had predicted that Corona's second peak would be reached by 15 April, but this did not happen. These estimates proved to be wrong because the parameters were wrong. The team says that the epidemic is constantly changing. It has seen changes in the past week itself.
2. Earlier the team told the news agency Reuters that the peak would come between 3-5.
3. The same team, in a conversation with a news website, Vidyasagar said that the peak will come by May 7, but it is still not clear in the figures.
4. Earlier in the March report of SBI Research, there was a possibility of a peak in the middle of April. The revised estimate came in April and it was said that the peak would come from May 15 to 20.
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