The coronavirus epidemic in India has been over a year. On 22 March 2020, a lockdown was imposed in India due to the Coronavirus.
In the last year, where cases of coronavirus have been seen reaching from 97 thousand to nine thousand, now again, coronavirus has picked up speed and the figure has crossed 50 thousand.
The second wave of coronavirus has arrived in India and cases of corona are increasing rapidly.
On March 30, 56,211 cases of corona have been reported. 271 people have died and there are more than five lakh active cases in the country.
So far, there have been more than 20 million cases of coronavirus in India.
A day ago, that is, on March 29, there were 68,020 cases of Corona, which is the largest figure to date in the second wave.
Coronavirus cases are increasing when vaccination campaign is going on across the country. It has been almost three months since the campaign started in January. Till March 30, 6,11,13,354 people have been given Coronavirus vaccine across the country.
Governments are constantly appealing to wear masks and abide by the rules of social distancing. For this, strictness has also been taken.
Now again ceremonies and gatherings are being banned. Elections are due in Kerala, but because of the increasing cases of Corona, events, ceremonies, protests, and rallies have been banned for 15 days.
In Holi too, different states had issued guidelines. In which strict movement was taken on public ceremonies and movement from states with more cases.
Why speed in second wave
Despite all this, the cases of corona are increasing. The effects of vaccination and herd immunity are not seen. In such a situation, many questions are being raised about the end of Corona and its ways.
The first is that while the first wave of the Corona epidemic took 97 thousand cases in one day till September, 68 thousand cases have been reported between February and March this year. What is the reason for the speed of the corona outbreak?
Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, a public policy and health system expert, says, "The experiences that have come from other countries show that the Covid-19 spreads rapidly in its second wave. However, his ability to disease is comparatively less. In almost all countries, the second wave has been more dangerous than the first wave. This is a natural process but when people become heedless then the conditions become more favorable for the virus. This is currently happening.
Dr. Sandeep Nair, head of the Center for Chest and Respiratory Diseases Department at BL Kapoor Hospital, blames two reasons behind this as primarily responsible.
Doctor Sandeep told, "Ever since the cases of coronavirus have come down, people have become careless. They have reduced masking, frequent hand washing, and maintaining social distancing. Also, many people have started feeling that they have become immune only after taking a dose of the vaccine. Now they will not have corona but, it is not so. "
“The second reason is the new variants of the virus. The new variants of the virus are more contagious. The same was found in the new strain of the UK. In such a situation, the change in virus and the behavior of people together has given rise to a second wave. ”
New variants of the virus have been found in India in the recent past.
The Union Health Ministry had informed that a new 'double mutant' variant of the coronavirus has been detected in India.
According to the ministry, many 'variants of Concerns' (VOCs) have been found in 18 states of the country. This means that different types of coronavirus have been found in many parts of the country which can have a detrimental effect on health.
Variants found in Britain, South Africa, and Brazil have also been found here. Doctors say that these variants can be stopped only by taking precautions.
How long herd immunity
Herd immunity means that if a disease spreads to a large part of a group, then the people who are completely cured by fighting that disease become immune to that disease.
As more people become immune, the risk of spreading the infection decreases.
The government keeps surveying at different places to find out how many people have been infected in a given area.
According to the results of a serosurvey conducted by ICMR in February, one in every five Indians has got coronavirus. The survey was conducted between December 17 and January 8.
As the Corona case grew, discussions about herd immunity also started. It was said that the Covid-19 could be destroyed by the arrival of herd immunity, but it has not happened at the moment.
Dr. Chandrakant Laharia says that the concept of herd immunity may not apply in the case of Covid-19.
He told, "Herd immunity is meant for a small area. Apart from this, this idea does not work in new viruses for which there is no antibody in the body at all. Herd immunity cannot come only by automatic infection. Vaccination is also needed in new diseases so that immunity can be created in people. Only when immunity comes in 60 to 70 percent of the population can it be called herd immunity. ”
"Secondly, it is important for the herd immunity to provide life-long protection of immunity made from the immunity and vaccine created automatically. However, the immunity that comes after the disease is not life-long and neither vaccine or infection has reached 60 to 70 percent of the population. Therefore, we cannot say whether the herd immunity will come or when it can come. ”
When the vaccine effect
If we talk about immunization made from vaccination, more than 60 million people have been given the vaccine.
The vaccine has been described as a major weapon in the fight against Corona. However, its effect is not seen now.
Doctors believe that it will take a long time to see the effect of vaccination.
Doctor Sandeep Nair explains that the vaccine affects only when both of its doses are applied. About a month after the first dose, the second dose starts and after 14 days, immunity starts. In such a situation, out of a population of 125 billion people, only six crore have been vaccinated. Those people are even less, who have already got the second dose. Therefore, it will take time to see the effect of the vaccine.
Vaccination against Covid-19 started in India on 16 January. The first health workers were given the vaccine. It was then opened to senior citizens and people over 45 years of age with serious illnesses.
Now anyone over the age of 45 can get vaccinated.
At the same time, Dr. Chandrakant Laharia tells that it is difficult to stop until a sufficient population can get protection through vaccines at any place. Dependency on vaccination is not yet profitable. The benefit of the vaccine will be when a sufficient number of people are vaccinated.
Infection more, death cases less
Along with the speed in the cases of Covid-19, it has also been seen that the number of deaths due to corona has decreased.
Last year, the number of people who died in one day from Corona had increased by more than a thousand, but now 257 people have died in a day.
There are two reasons behind the rise in corona cases but death cases. One is the improvement of the health system and the second is the less-lethal variants of the new variants of the virus.
Dr. Sandeep Nair said, "In the last one year, the health system in India has been prepared to fight against Corona, due to which it is quickly investigated and treated."
"At the same time, last year Covid-19 was a new virus and no one knew how to treat it. Some antibiotics were given, some anti-viral were given and some chloroquine was given. Everyone was trying. Now in a year we have got a lot of experience with which symptom how to give medicine. Like what to give if clotting or fibrosis. ”
The current new variant being less lethal is also having a small impact on the death toll. Then people have become more aware than before and have started recognizing and treating its symptoms.
Why hesitant with lockdown
Last year, the lockdown was announced at the beginning of the Corona epidemic in India which lasted for a long time.
But now, even after the cases cross 50 thousand, the state governments are hesitant to lockdown.
Differences have emerged in the Mahavikas Aghadi government of Maharashtra.
On Sunday, in a meeting with Covid Task Force, CM Uddhav Thackeray asked the officials to prepare the roadmap for the lockdown but NCP leader Nawab Malik said that Maharashtra cannot tolerate another lockdown. Any other options should be seen.
At the same time, there was talk of putting a lockdown in Kerala too, but rejecting it, the rules of Covid have been tightened.
This is when Maharashtra and Kerala are among the states where Covid-19 has the highest number of cases. There have been more than 35 thousand cases a day in Maharashtra and more than two thousand cases in Kerala.
However, why is there any hesitation to see lockdown as an option.
Experts say that while economic reasons are responsible for this, the purpose of lockdown has also been fulfilled.
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at rating agency Care, says that it is not a good idea to put a lockdown in the current economic situation. Last year, when the lockdown was imposed at the state and center level, the economy was severely affected. People lost their jobs and businesses stopped. The government has still not been able to completely fix it. If there is a lockdown, then the economy will not be able to get time to recover.
He says that the situation is even more difficult for Mumbai. It is the center of many business activities. It is called the economic capital of the country. Everything here will be affected not only in the state but in the whole country. The nightly curfew is also affecting businesses like hotels, restaurants, and cinemas. Giving it bigger can make it very difficult. This is the reason why the state governments are hesitant due to the lockdown.
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