Election Analysis: How Will the INDIA Alliance's Position Change Following Mamata's Defeat? And What Were the Results in the Seats Where Candidates Were Dropped?

It is proving extremely difficult for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to come to terms with the crushing defeat suffered in West Bengal. This explains why, just a day after the results were declared, she—in her characteristic style—went so far as to refuse to tender her resignation. Such a reaction is, in fact, entirely natural for the habitually defiant Mamata. After all, she was fully convinced that cornering everyone—from the Election Commission and the Central Government to the Supreme Court—over the issue of the SIR (Summary Revision of Electoral Rolls) would yield electoral dividends; however, the results left her completely stunned. None of her extensive efforts proved effective in shielding her from the prevailing anti-incumbency wave.

Throughout the election campaign, Mamata Banerjee vociferously raised the issue that, under the pretext of the SIR, the names of a large number of voters in Bengal were being struck off the electoral rolls. She accused the Election Commission of acting at the behest of the Central Government. By presenting arguments before the Supreme Court as a public petitioner, she demonstrated that—whether in the streets of Kolkata or the courts of Delhi—she had not lost her innate fighting spirit to battle until the very end. Yet, the election results indicate that the SIR failed to serve as an effective weapon for the Trinamool Congress to neutralize the anti-incumbency sentiment.

Mamata found herself besieged on multiple fronts—ranging from the teacher recruitment scam to allegations of corruption leveled against her own party colleagues. Issues concerning law and order, alongside women’s safety, loomed large; these factors ultimately emerged as the primary reasons behind the Trinamool Congress’s crushing defeat. Even in 2021, Mamata had faced a formidable challenge from the Modi-led “saffron party”; however, on that occasion, she succeeded in securing victory by leveraging her welfare schemes and her appeal to protect Bengali culture from “outsiders.”

This time around, she launched the Yuva Sathi scheme (offering a monthly stipend of ₹1,500 to unemployed students aged 21 to 40 who have passed the Class 10 examination) and increased the monthly allocation for the Lakshmi Bhandar scheme for women from ₹1,200 to ₹1,500. Over 8.1 million people in Bengal—accounting for more than 10% of the electorate—registered for the Yuva Sathi scheme; however, when they eventually arrived at the polling stations, they evidently did not perceive the scheme as a compelling enough reason to cast their votes in favor of the Trinamool Congress.

The Situation Within the INDIA Alliance Will Also Change

Bengal—a state that has witnessed unprecedented political shifts—shattered her dream of becoming Chief Minister for a fourth consecutive term. Had the Trinamool emerged victorious this time, Mamata would have earned the distinction of being the longest-serving female Chief Minister. Moreover, her stature as a pivotal pillar of the opposition INDIA alliance would have been significantly bolstered. Most astonishingly, Mamata herself suffered a defeat even in her own stronghold of Bhabanipur.

A 40% Vote Share Offers Some Solace to the Trinamool

While the BJP has dealt a crushing blow to the Trinamool Congress in Bengal by defeating them in 207 seats, the Trinamool supremo finds a measure of relief in the fact that the party still managed to secure a vote share exceeding 40 percent. Nevertheless, this defeat has brought the spirited 71-year-old leader back to the very crossroads from which she first embarked on her political journey. It now remains to be seen how far she can take her brand of “street politics” at this stage of her life.

Another Key Fact: Trinamool Won 13 of the 20 Seats Where the Most Names Were Struck Off

Initial analyses regarding the role played by the Supplementary Electoral Roll (SER) in the Bengal results suggest that, among the 20 constituencies where the highest number of voters’ names were struck off, 13 ultimately went to the Trinamool. Conversely, the BJP secured victory in six of these seats, while the Congress won one. Another emerging trend reveals that out of the 187 constituencies where more than 5,000 names were removed, the BJP won 119. In 47 of these 187 constituencies, the number of removed voters actually exceeded the winning margin or lead secured by the victor. The TMC won 65 of these 187 seats—18 of which saw the number of removed voters surpass the winning margin.