Western countries have imposed very strict sanctions after Russia attacked Ukraine. However, it does not fully include Russia's most important industries, gas, and oil.
Russia's economy, banking system, and currency are under tremendous pressure after the attack on Ukraine.
Russia says that by completely banning Russian oil exports, crude oil prices can reach $ 300 a barrel. At the same time, Europe is trying to take a different route to reduce its dependence on gas, coal, and oil.
The European Union currently imports half of its gas, coal, and about a third of its oil from Russia.
The leaders of the European Union are going to meet this Thursday and Friday to reduce dependence on Russia.
In a statement, EU leaders did not directly refer to Russia's attack on Ukraine, saying that "a period of new history is being made in European history."
Under this, emphasis has been laid to develop new models of growth and investment by 2030, as well as to diversify the supply and routes of energy.
Russia's threat
After sanctions and warnings from Western countries, Russia has threatened that a ban on Russian oil could cost it up to $300 a barrel and shut down the main gas pipeline to Germany.
To put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US has said that it and its European allies are considering imposing sanctions on importing oil from Russia. Worldwide oil prices have reached their highest level since 2008. On Monday, the price of crude oil reached $ 139 per barrel.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said that rejecting Russian oil would have devastating effects on the global market.
He says that the price of crude oil can double to reach $ 300 per barrel.
US President Joe Biden has discussed with the leaders of France, Germany, and Britain and sought their support for the ban.
However, it is also believed that if America does not get support, then it can move forward on it alone. But most countries in Europe depend on Russian energy sources. Along with this, America also imports three percent of its oil from Russia.
The gas reaches Germany through a pipeline from Russia. Last month, Germany suspended the certification of the second gas pipeline Nord Stream 2.
Russian leader Novak said, "We also have the right to make a similar decision, can stop gas from the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline."
How much oil and gas does Russia give?
Russia is the third-largest oil producer in the world after the US and Saudi Arabia. About 8-10 percent of the world's oil supply comes from Russia.
Russia exports 4 to 5 million barrels of crude oil and 8,500 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually every day.
Most of this goes to the part of Europe. Russia exports 40 percent of gas and 30 percent of oil to the European Union, which will not be easy to find an alternative if the supply is disrupted.
Due to Russia's important role in the global energy market, the US and the European Union are still unable to completely ban Russia's oil and gas industry.
Because of this, on Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz rejected the idea of imposing large-scale sanctions on Russia's oil and gas. He said Europe had "deliberately exempted" Russian energy from sanctions because at this time the energy supply could not be saved by "any other way".
Countries in Europe require more gas than oil, and the European Union imports 61% of its gas, of which 40% comes from Russia.
If Russia refuses to supply gas to Europe, then Europe may face a gas crisis, in which case it will have to find other ways to get gas.
According to an estimate by the Bruegel think-tank, if Russia stops supplying gas to Europe, EU countries will have to rely on their already stockpiled gas, which is already at the lowest level in a decade.
European countries start storing the gas after the temperature rise in April so that they can be used in winter. This would mean that they would have to find a different source for the gas.
In this situation, these countries can import Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from countries like North Africa and Azerbaijan.
The huge amount of such excess gas will put pressure on the European gas sector and will further increase the already rising gas prices.
What will be an alternative to Russian oil?
Europe will not immediately stop taking Russia's oil and gas, but now European countries will look for different options for Russia's oil and gas supply.
On Sunday, the big oil company Shell defended its decision to buy crude oil from Russia.
The company said that to maintain the supply of oil in Europe, it was forced to buy oil from Russia.
A Shell company spokesman had said, "Despite the continued supply of crude to refineries, the energy industry cannot assure the continued provision of essential products to people across Europe in the coming weeks."
Possible sanctions on Russia's oil will increase pressure on its other options.
For the uninterrupted supply of oil, America can put pressure on Saudi Arabia to increase crude oil production this week. With this, the deal on Iran's nuclear deal can go ahead so that the sanctions on its oil exports can be removed and the supply of oil remains intact.
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