24 February 2022 - A message from President Vladimir Putin was broadcast on Russian state television in the morning. Putin said he had no choice but to conduct a "special military operation" against neighboring Ukraine.
A few hours later, Russian forces attacked Ukraine from the east, west, and south. Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union, is the second-largest country in Europe.
The international community swung into action due to Russia's attack, many countries including the United Nations, European Union, America, Britain, Canada imposed strict economic sanctions on Russia.
But Russia is not the first country on which economic sanctions have been imposed. Earlier, similar pressure was put on Cuba, Iraq, South Africa, and North Korea.
So this week we are questioning whether economic sanctions will prove effective in reining in Russia. And then, did the countries that have been banned so far show any change?
Cuba
Dr. Christopher Sabatini is Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House. He is knowledgeable in matters related to Latin America and US sanctions.
In 1960, Cuban Prime Minister Fidel Castro nationalized US-owned companies in the country and increased taxes on imports from the US. In response, then US President John F Kennedy imposed economic sanctions on Cuba.
He says, "At that time there was an attempt to force the Cuban government to pay compensation for the nationalization of everything from oil refineries to factories, even casinos, golf courses. Initially, there were restrictions on trade, then later. US citizens were also banned from going there.
If restrictions were imposed, people's difficulties increased, resentment increased. America was held responsible for the economic troubles. America expected that if the economy was cracked down, Cuba would break its ties with Communist leaders. But this did not happen, his cooperation with the communist countries increased further.
Over time, the scope of sanctions on Cuba also increased. But the purpose for which they were employed was not fulfilled.
Dr. Christopher Sabatini says, "In 1960, Cuba became a client state of the Soviet Union, that is, a country that was dependent on each other in economic, political and military matters. When the Soviet Union disintegrated, it had strong relations with Venezuela. Hugo Chávez used to give one million barrels of crude oil to Cuba every day, half of which they would sell in the international market. America passed laws in 1992 and 1996 to tighten sanctions, but it was wrong to expect that the Cuban people would change power there.
In 1992, under the Cuban Democratic Act, an attempt was made to ensure that Cuba did not receive aid from anywhere after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After this, under the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, the removal of restrictions was prohibited until Cuba became a multi-party republic.
He says, "60 years have passed, but the sanctions on Cuba did not show the effect. The sanctions could neither force it to become a republic nor serve any other purpose. The economy faced difficulties and some of The economic freedom of the people also ended in matters. But they became more dependent on the government than before because the control of the economy was in the hands of the government. This also deepened the problem of immigration."
As of July 2020, there were more than 1.3 million Cubans in the US alone.
Cuba's leadership has now changed, but neither the Communist Party nor the single-party system has changed. It also does not seem that the conditions laid down for the removal of restrictions will be fulfilled in the coming times. Then what is the reason for continuing the ban?
Dr. Christopher Sabatini explains, "It's a purely political matter. There's a group of Cuban-American senators in Florida for whom this is a personal problem. Their families had to flee Cuba. They believe that punishing Cuba is more It's important. And Florida is important in the US presidential election, with 29 electoral votes."
Sanctions on Cuba were imposed by the Democratic Party government, and then both Democrats and Republicans tightened them.
Some relief in sanctions was given during the Obama era. But then the Donald Trump government of the Republican Party reversed this decision and once again put Cuba on the list of sponsoring countries. Biden, who came after Trump, has not changed this decision yet.
South Africa and Iraq
The result of sanctions on Cuba did not show as expected. It is said that South Africa is a good example in this matter, but here too the story behind the scenes is different.
Lee Jones is a Professor of Political Economy and International Relations at the Queen Mary University of London. He is knowledgeable in matters related to international sanctions.
Apartheid policy was in force in South Africa in 1948, whose purpose was to benefit minority whites. In 1960, police opened fire on unarmed people protesting the apartheid policy in Sharpeville, killing more than 50 people.
His participation in the Olympic Games in South Africa was banned. Financial sanctions were also imposed on him, but he found a way to avoid them.
Professor Lee Jones says, "There was a kind of criminal network there. To avoid the ban on oil, oil was made from coal. It was expensive but there was an option. Smuggling here also increased rapidly. But 80 Things started to change in the decade of 1970. Here large-scale anti-apartheid policy demonstrations started and it became difficult for the government to control the situation.
In 1986, the government imposed a nationwide emergency. Economic sanctions were further tightened. There was a ban on giving loans to foreign banks and they asked for the return of the loan given to the government.
Professor Lee Jones says, "The government wanted to make structural reforms to reduce people's anger, but it was difficult due to restrictions. In such a situation, the government decided to end the protest, but it was not a solution to the problem."
FW de Klerk became president in 1989 and announced the end of apartheid, and the sanctions were finally lifted in 1993. Professor Lee Jones says that the effect of the restrictions was visible here, but it was not easy to pressurize it.
The professor says, "Western countries like to pat their back. They present South Africa as a successful example. But in reality, there was a lot of pressure on America to ban it. With South Africa, during the Cold War era, America had good relations. It was a non-communist country surrounded by countries with leftist governments. But when changes happened in South Africa, America said it was because of sanctions.
While Africa was going through a change, preparations were being made to impose sanctions on a country in the Middle East.
On 2 August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. The United Nations imposed sanctions on him. The goal was to force Iraq to move out of Kuwait and destroy the supposedly destructive weapons.
The US and its allies succeeded in getting Iraq out of Kuwait, but then, as in Cuba, the purpose of the sanctions changed here, now it was a change of power.
Professor Lee Jones explains, "The population here was already suffering, it was divided. If you are somehow making a living and the government is helping you by giving rations, then it was foolish to expect that people will revolt. do."
After 13 years, the United Nations lifted the sanctions on Iraq. But by then the invasion of Iraq led by the US and the fall of the government of Iraq's leader Saddam Hussein had taken place. The whole matter raised the question that how justified it was to put lakhs of innocent people in trouble.
He says, "It has paid a great human cost. The Iraqi community was badly affected by the attack. If it is considered a success, at what cost? Since then the United Nations has not imposed extensive sanctions against any other country."
sanctions strategy
Dr. Clara Portela is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Valencia, Spain. She also advises the European Parliament on sanctions-related matters.
She says, "After the Iraq case, it became clear to the members of the United Nations Security Council and the international community that broad sanctions should not be imposed on any country. Like banning certain people or institutions."
The first example of this was Libya. In 1988, a passenger plane going to New York crashed near Britain. Two Libyan citizens were held responsible in this case. Sanctions were imposed on him for refusing to hand him over to Libya.
Dr. Clara says, "aviation-related sanctions were imposed on him. International flights to and from Libya and his supply of aircraft parts were banned. It also had an effect. Libya extradited those two people. He was tried in the International Court of Justice."
Such sanctions have also been used to deter insurgent groups causing instability in places such as Sierra Leone and Angola.
She says, "These were groups that used to do illegal business of diamonds, they are also called blood diamonds or conflict diamonds. They used the money to buy weapons. on earnings."
In such cases, there is hope that the restrictions imposed by targeting one thing can work. Although Dr. Clara says that it is not always necessary to be like this.
Dr. Clara says, "Unfortunately, such sanctions did not succeed everywhere. Somalia has long been banned for the supply of arms. North Korea also has been sanctioned. But it cannot be said that they will be effective.". Sanctions are part of a larger strategy, which also has a place for diplomacy, but it is not necessary to change."
It is difficult to formulate a strategy for sanctions that is 100% effective. This means that it is not an easy task for Western countries to devise the right strategy to stop Russia in Ukraine.
a lot at stake
Western countries had warned Russia that if Ukraine were to be attacked, sanctions would be imposed that had never been heard of. But this did not stop Russia.
Sue Eckert is a Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. He is also a Senior Advisor at the International Peace Institute. He is well versed in matters related to the strategy of sanctions and their impact.
She says, "Russia has been subjected to economic, international trade and technical equipment sanctions for violating international law. Every effort is being made to isolate it."
Sue Eckert says that the situation is unprecedented, of course, but success can be achieved through restrictions.
She says, "Russia's currency has depreciated to its all-time low, the ruble. There's no power switch that you can turn off in a jiffy."
But in the case of Russia, there is a lot at stake. It is the largest exporter of natural gas in the world. Banning buying gas from him can be an effective way, but it can also have the opposite effect.
She says, "US President Joe Biden says he is trying to avoid the impact of sanctions on European countries. The European Union depends on Russia for 40 percent of its gas needs. And for the economy recovering from the Kovid epidemic. Difficulties may increase."
It is also very difficult to predict what will be the next step of President Putin. He has already declared these restrictions illegal. They have also put their nuclear weapons on high alert. In such a situation, it is bound to increase the concern because the situation which will arise due to this, its effect will be visible on the whole world.
Sue Eckert says, "One of the reasons why Western countries are not open about some sanctions is that you have to have some room for dialogue. lest the Russian economy becomes so unstable that Putin feels That now there is nothing left to lose."
Although she also says, "But if you do not take steps now, then the question will arise that after Ukraine, what will happen if Russia extends its hand to any other country that is part of the Soviet Union. I think you should take this path by taking the risk." Gotta select."
Let's come back to our question- will it be stopped by imposing sanctions on Russia.
Sanctions are effective when countries work together and are not used as a sole substitute. Changing objectives and extremely stringent conditions can also worsen the situation.
In the end, how effective the sanctions will depend on the reaction of the country on which they are imposed. That is, only Vladimir Putin knows whether these sanctions can force him to change his course.
According to Professor Lee Jones, the thinking behind the sanctions is that every person has a price, if the difficulties are increased, then the person will have to back down.
Although he also says that if Putin wants to create a buffer state between Russia and NATO, then no matter how bad the situation, he will change his path, it cannot be said.
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