First of all, I want to admit one thing. Several times I thought: "Putin would never do that." But he did the same thing every time.
"They'll never take over Crimea, sure?" He did.
"They will never wage war in the Donbass." He did.
"He will never attack Russia with full potential." He did.
I have now concluded that the phrase "never will" does not apply to Vladimir Putin and that raises an extremely uncomfortable question:
"Will he ever go ahead and press the nuclear button. Will he do that?"
This is not a theoretical question. Vladimir Putin has put his country's nuclear forces on "special alert", accusing Ukraine of "aggressive rhetoric" on behalf of leaders of NATO countries.
Putin's warning
Listen carefully to how President Putin is giving a statement. Last Thursday, when he announced a "special military operation" (actually, a full-scale attack on Ukraine) on television, he issued a terrifying warning:-
"Whoever from outside will think of interfering. If anyone does so, he will have to face consequences that he has never seen in history."
Dmitry Muratov, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and editor-in-chief of Nobaya Gazeta newspaper, believes "Putin's words sounded like a direct threat of a nuclear attack."
"In that televised address, Putin was behaving not just as the leader of the Kremlin, but as the sovereign of the planet. Just as the owner of a car turns the keyrings in his fingers, Putin is twirling the nuclear button," he said. They have said many times: If Russia is not there, then why do we need this planet? No one has noticed. But there is a great danger if Russia is not treated the way it wants. Everything will be ruined."
'What would the world mean without Russia'
In a 2018 documentary, President Putin remarked, "...if someone decides to annihilate Russia, we have a legal right to respond. Yes, it will be a disaster for humanity and the world. But I am a citizen of Russia and also the President of this country. Why do we need a world that does not have Russia?"
Now let's talk about 2022. Putin has waged a full-scale war against Ukraine, but the Ukrainian armed forces are also putting up strong resistance. Western countries have also united over potential sanctions intended to cripple the Kremlin, shocking the Kremlin. After this, the very existence of Putin's system may be in danger.
Moscow-based defense expert Powell Falgenhor believes, "Putin is in a difficult position. He doesn't have much choice now. Once Western countries freeze the assets of Russia's Central Bank and the Russian financial system collapses, it will lead to the entire system." will be in vain."
What are Putin's options?
He says, "One option they have is to stop gas supplies to Europe. This could put European countries on the sidelines. Another option is to use a nuclear weapon somewhere in the North Sea between Britain and Denmark and see if what happens."
If Vladimir Putin selecting the nuclear option, will someone close to him be able to stop him from doing so?
"Russian politicians never take the side of the people. They always take the side of the government," says Nobel laureate Dmitry Muratov.
The ruler is omnipotent in Vladimir Putin's Russia. This is a country where those who stand against Putin are few and far between."
"No one is ready to stand before Putin. We are in a dangerous position," says Powell Falgenhor.
The war in Ukraine is the war of Vladimir Putin. If Kremlin leaders achieve their military goals, Ukraine's future as a sovereign nation will be in doubt. If Russia's campaign is unsuccessful and its soldiers suffer a large number of casualties, then there is a fear that the Kremlin will take more dangerous steps after this.
Especially when the "never will" rule no longer applies to them.
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