The tribal formula of power in Rajasthan, MP, and Gujarat: 99 seats in three states, the share of tribals, 50 nearby seats also affected

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address a gathering at the tribal shrine Mangarh in Rajasthan's Banswara district today. Thousands of tribals from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat have been called for the rally. The PM's program is government, so all three Chief Ministers i.e. Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan), Shivraj Singh Chauhan (Madhya Pradesh), and Bhupendra Bhai Patel (Gujarat) have also been called in it.

This happened about the Prime Minister's program... But did you notice that in the three states where the tribals are being invited, elections are to be held within the next one to 12 months? Assembly elections in Gujarat can be announced in a day or two. At the same time, elections are to be held in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan adjacent to Gujarat in the next year i.e. 2023.

Now you must be thinking that what can be the connection between the elections of the three states. Of the total 652 seats in the three states, 99 assembly seats are reserved for STs. This means that only tribal MLAs will be elected from the total 16% of seats in the three states.

Madhya Pradesh: Of the total 230 assembly seats in the state, 35 are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 47 for Scheduled Tribes (ST). The share of ST seats in the state is 20.4%. In such a situation, it is the strength of these seats, which hold one-fifth of the total seats, that the electoral victory or defeat is decided.

Rajasthan: Out of the total 200 assembly seats in the state, 34 are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 25 for Scheduled Tribes (ST). The share of ST seats is around 12.15%. This figure is less than that of Madhya Pradesh but is very important in terms of electoral defeat and victory.

Gujarat: There is a total of 182 assembly seats in the state. Of these, 13 are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 27 for Scheduled Tribes (ST). Here 14.83% of the total seats are reserved for ST. In such a situation, the effort of every party is to mobilize the votes of this class.

Surrounding 50 seats also affected

The votes of tribals also play an important role in victory and defeat in about 50 other seats adjacent to these 99 seats in all three states. The party that has won the tribal seats has usually reached power. The results of the last elections (2018) in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh testify to this. This is clear from the graphic below

Congress could not gain power in Gujarat even by getting tribal votes, but it gave a tough fight to the BJP. Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar's controversial remarks on Prime Minister Modi at the end of the assembly elections were also cited as the reason for the loss to Congress.

Why did you select Mangarh Dham to worship the tribals?

Mangarh hills are present in Banswara district, 550 km from Rajasthan's capital Jaipur. The boundary of the hills of Mangarh touches Gujarat and Rajasthan, while the border of Madhya Pradesh is also very close to it. In this way, it is the connecting point of the three states.

Mangarh is witness to the martyrdom of unarmed tribals

In Mangarh, 80 km from Banswara district headquarters, Sant Govind Guru had started a major movement against the British and usurers. The British conspired to crush this movement. On 17 November 1913, when hundreds of tribals led by Govind Guru reached the hills of Mangarh, the British opened fire on them.

More than 1500 tribals were killed in this incident. After this, it became a center of faith for the tribals. A museum has been built here, in which the entire incident has been shown. If Modi makes any announcement for the tribals from this place, then it will benefit three states as well as across the country. Modi can also declare Mangarh a national monument.

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