Vodafone Idea Share Price Target: Jefferies Sees 143% Upside to ₹29 in Bull Case

Global brokerage firm Jefferies has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Vodafone Idea Limited (VIL) shares while reducing its base-case target price from ₹20 to ₹16 per share. Despite lowering its target, the brokerage believes the telecom operator offers an attractive risk-reward opportunity following a 23% correction in its share price.

Jefferies has estimated a broad fair-value range of ₹9 to ₹29 for Vodafone Idea shares under different business and valuation scenarios. The ₹29 bull-case valuation suggests potential upside of around 143%, while the ₹9 bear-case valuation implies potential downside of about 25%. Its revised base target of ₹16 suggests about 34% upside from the reference market price used in its analysis.

The brokerage's outlook depends on Vodafone Idea's ability to expand its network, stabilise subscriber trends, and benefit from future telecom tariff increases. Jefferies expects revenue and cash EBITDA to grow at compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 11% and 25%, respectively, between FY26 and FY29.

Vodafone Idea Share Price Target: Jefferies' ₹9–₹29 Valuation Range

Jefferies believes Vodafone Idea's recent share-price correction has improved the stock's risk-reward profile. However, its valuation range reflects materially different outcomes depending on tariff increases, earnings growth, and the valuation multiple investors assign to the company.

Jefferies has reduced its base target from ₹20 to ₹16 and lowered its target valuation multiple to 20 times enterprise value to cash EBITDA. It has nevertheless retained its ‘Buy’ recommendation, citing Vodafone Idea's potential operational improvement and the possibility of higher tariffs.

Why Has Jefferies Retained Its Buy Rating on Vodafone Idea?

According to the brokerage, Vodafone Idea's shares have declined despite signs of improvement in subscriber trends. Jefferies believes network expansion, better customer retention, and potential tariff hikes could support a recovery in revenue and profitability.

1. Network Expansion Could Support Subscriber Growth

Vodafone Idea has been investing in expanding its network infrastructure. Jefferies noted that the company's broadband base stations increased by 39%, while its network sites grew by 14% over the preceding two years.

The brokerage expects network sites to expand further to approximately 261,000 by FY29. Improved coverage and network quality could help the company attract new customers, reduce subscriber churn, and improve the performance of future tariff increases.

Jefferies also expects Vodafone Idea's consumer subscriber base to increase by around six million between FY27 and FY29, supporting its revenue-growth outlook.

2. Tariff Hikes Could Improve Revenue and EBITDA

Telecom tariff increases are another important factor behind the brokerage's assessment. Jefferies expects Vodafone Idea to deliver an 11% revenue CAGR and a 25% cash EBITDA CAGR over FY26–FY29.

The brokerage estimates that a 10% tariff increase could lift cash EBITDA by approximately 17%. Because Vodafone Idea has substantial financial leverage, stronger operating earnings could have an amplified effect on its equity valuation.

However, the forecast depends on the company being able to implement tariff increases while retaining customers. If higher prices lead to greater subscriber losses or tariff increases are delayed, the expected earnings improvement could be weaker.

3. Valuation Below the Five-Year Average

Jefferies noted that Vodafone Idea shares were trading at around 21 times enterprise value to cash EBITDA, below the stock's five-year average multiple.

The brokerage has reduced its target valuation multiple to 20 times and lowered its base-case price target to ₹16. It sees the potential for stronger earnings to support the share price over time, but the outcome will depend on execution and market conditions.

Vodafone Idea Share Price: What Could Push the Stock Towards ₹29?

The ₹29 target represents Jefferies' optimistic scenario rather than its central price forecast. The bull case assumes more favourable operating conditions, including cumulative tariff increases of 25% during FY27–FY29 and stronger cash EBITDA growth.

Under this scenario, better revenue realisation and operating leverage could improve the company's valuation. Jefferies has estimated a potential upside of around 143% from the reference price used in its analysis.

The bear case is significantly less favourable. If tariff increases fail to materialise during FY27–FY29, the brokerage's valuation scenario suggests a price of ₹9 per share, representing around 25% downside.

The wide gap between ₹9 and ₹29 highlights the uncertainty surrounding Vodafone Idea's turnaround. Investors should therefore distinguish the ₹16 base target from the more optimistic ₹29 scenario.