The budget of India, one of the fastest growing economies in the world, is coming. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is presenting her eighth consecutive budget. In this budget, all eyes will be on the much-awaited tax relief for the middle class. In her first budget in 2019, Sitharaman replaced the leather briefcase with ledgers. After that, it was made paperless using tablets. This year's budget will also be paperless like the last three years.
Apart from increasing the scope of income tax exemption, the market is also monitoring these 10 figures of the Union Budget for the year 2025-26. Let's learn about them.
1. Fiscal deficit
The fiscal deficit in the budget for the current financial year (April 2024 to March 2025, or FY 25), which is the difference between government expenditures and income, is estimated to be 4.9 percent of GDP. As per the government roadmap, the target is to reduce the deficit to 4.5 percent of GDP in FY26. The market is keenly watching the deficit numbers in the FY26 budget.
2. Capital expenditure
The government's planned capital expenditure for this fiscal is Rs 11.1 lakh crore. However, capital expenditure was delayed due to slow government spending in the first four months due to the Lok Sabha elections. However, it is expected to pick up in the remaining months of the current financial year. The momentum of capital expenditure is expected to continue in Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's budget for FY26.
3. Roadmap for debts
The finance minister had said in her 2024-25 budget speech that the fiscal policy focus from 2026-27 will be on managing the fiscal deficit, thereby reducing the percentage of government debt to GDP. The market will closely watch the borrowing roadmap in the budget to see when the Finance Minister can bring the general government debt-GDP to the target of 60 percent. The general government debt-GDP ratio was 85 percent in 2024, including 57 percent of central government debt.
4. Borrowing
The government's gross borrowing budget in FY 2025 was Rs 14.01 lakh crore. The government borrows from the market to meet its fiscal deficit. The market will keep an eye on the borrowing data, especially after receiving a lower dividend from the RBI in FY 2026 as compared to Rs 2.11 lakh crore in FY 2025.
5. Tax Revenue
The gross tax revenue in the 2024-25 budget was estimated to be Rs 38.40 lakh crore, which is 11.72 percent higher than FY 2024. Of this, Rs 22.07 lakh crore is estimated to come from direct taxes (personal income tax + corporate tax) and Rs 16.33 lakh crore from indirect taxes (customs duty + excise duty + GST).
6. GST
Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection is estimated to grow by 11 percent to Rs 10.62 lakh crore in 2024-25. GST revenue estimates for FY26 will be closely watched as revenue growth has been slow in the last three months of the current fiscal year.
7. Nominal GDP
India's nominal GDP growth (real GDP plus inflation) is estimated to be 10.5 percent in FY25, while real GDP growth estimated by the NSO is expected to be 6.4 percent. The nominal GDP growth estimates for FY26 in the budget will give an idea of how inflation will be in the next financial year.
8. Dividends
The government has estimated to receive Rs 2.33 lakh crore as dividends from RBI and financial institutions and Rs 56,260 crore from CPSEs in FY25. These two major non-tax revenue numbers will be focused on in the budget estimates for FY26.
9. Disinvestment
'Miscellaneous capital receipts' include proceeds from disinvestment and asset monetization. In the budget for FY25, the income from this item was estimated at Rs 50,000 crore. What is the government's target of income from this item in the budget for FY26, that figure will prepare a comprehensive roadmap for the future.
10. Spending on social schemes
The market is keeping an eye on spending on major schemes like NREGA as well as key sectors like health and education because the pace of the economy is determined by these figures. As the financial condition of the common people of the country improves, the economy also moves forward in the same proportion.
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