The country's economic growth rate is likely to slow down to 7 percent year-on-year from 1.7 percent in the current fiscal due to the weak performance of the manufacturing and mining sectors along with a slowdown in demand. If this happens, India may lose the status of the country with the fastest economic growth rate. Saudi Arabia can overtake this, whose growth rate is estimated to be 7.6 percent.
This possibility has been expressed in the first advance estimate of national income released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Friday. However, this is higher than RBI's estimate of 6.8%. The GDP growth rate in 2021-22 was 8.7%.
According to the NSO, nominal GDP (the value of goods and services produced in a year at the market or current prices) may also decline by 4.1 percent to 15.4 percent during 2022-23. In 2021-22, this figure was 19.5 percent. According to the data, the manufacturing sector output is expected to decline by 1.6 percent in the current financial year. There was an increase of 9.9 percent in 2021-22. Similarly, the rate of growth of production in the mining sector is likely to slow down to 2.4 percent from 11.5 percent in the previous fiscal.
The size of the economy can increase by Rs 36.43 lakh crore
Nominal GDP can increase by Rs 36.43 lakh crore to reach Rs 273.08 lakh crore in the current financial year. In 2021-22, this figure was 236.65 lakh crores.
The size at real GDP or constant price (2011-12) may be 157.60 lakh crore in 2022-23. Earlier there was an estimate of 147.36 lakh crores.
The mixed performance on the production front
The rate of production in the agriculture sector will increase from 3 percent to 3.5 percent in the current financial year.
The growth rate of the transport, hotel, and communication sectors is expected to increase from 11.1 percent to 13.7 percent.
The growth rate of financial, real estate, and professional services may increase from 4.2 percent to 6.4 percent.
However, the growth rate of the construction sector may come down to 9.1 percent from 11.5 percent.
The growth rate of public administration, defense, and other services may come down to 7.9%.
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