The Supreme Court of Nepal has decided to restore the existing Parliament, after which experts assess that the impact of the split in the Nepal Communist Party will be seen on the functioning of the House.
The constitutional bench of the Supreme Court, in a hearing on Tuesday, termed Prime Minister KP Oli's recommendation to dissolve Parliament on December 20 as unconstitutional. Not only this, the court has issued orders to the Prime Minister, the President, and the Speaker of the House to call a meeting of the lower house of Parliament within 13 days.
Various political parties in Nepal have demanded the Prime Minister's resignation on moral grounds following the court's decision, in which Pushp Kamal Dahal Prachanda, who heads another faction of the ruling Nepal Communist Party, and Madhav, a long-time ally of Prime Minister Oli Kumar Nepal is involved.
After the court's decision, the Prime Minister is holding meetings with his allied leaders regarding the future strategy, but one of his advisors has said that Oli will not resign and he will face the circumstances.
What will be the next process?
Constitutional and legal experts say that President Bidya Devi Bhandari should call a meeting of the lower house of Parliament within 13 days after the Prime Minister's recommendation to obey the court order.
Om Prakash Ariyal, a legal expert who opposed the recommendation of dissolution of Parliament, said, "The situation in the lower house of Parliament is now like before December 20. First of all, the President should call a meeting of the House on the recommendation of the Prime Minister." If there is any delay or reluctance in this, one-fourth of the members of Parliament can demand a meeting of the House. After this, the President will have to call the meeting in any case. "
He also said, "If the President obstructs this process, the Speaker can also call a meeting of the House, because the court has issued orders to the President, Prime Minister, Council of Ministers and the Speaker as well. It has happened when the then King of Nepal had to call a meeting of the House on the speaker's letter. "
However, constitutional expert Bipin Adhikari believes that the President and the Prime Minister cannot ignore the court order, because the order has a time limit.
The Bipin official told the BBC, "The Prime Minister should request the President to convene a meeting of the House within 13 days. The court's activism is a good initiative given the gap between the two sessions which have already been over six months." The remaining procedures will be completed after the Prime Minister requests the President. "
According to the constitution of Nepal, there should be no difference of more than six months between the two sessions of the Parliament.
What will happen if there is a meeting?
Former Secretary-General of Parliament office Manohar Bhattarai said that during the first sitting of Parliament, the President's letter will be read on the purpose of convening the session and after that, the leaders of various political parties will address the House.
He told the BBC Nepali, "The court has ordered a meeting within 13 days, so the president will have to call the meeting within the stipulated time frame. There will be no major agenda during the first meeting. About the speaker meeting and the court We will give information about the order. After this, all the party leaders will also get a chance to speak. "
According to Bhattarai, after discussions with the top leaders of the House and the Parliamentary Advisory Committee, if the speaker wishes, the Prime Minister can approve a motion of no-confidence against KP Oli.
Impact on Nepal Communist Party
According to Bhattarai, it is difficult to speculate about parliamentary activities because the rebel faction of the ruling Nepal Communist Party is not yet recognized.
Bhattarai said, "There is a clear division in the ruling party, but officially the party is not divided. Many are speculating that the Prime Minister will resign on moral grounds after the court's decision. However, the Prime Minister has said that he will resign You will face Parliament instead of giving. In such a situation, the programs of Parliament may be determined by the party's partition process. "
On the day Oli recommended the dissolution of Parliament, the representatives of the rebel faction of the Nepal Communist Party proposed to make Prachanda the new prime minister, demanding a no-confidence motion against Oli in the parliamentary secretariat.
According to Bhattarai, Oli's future will be decided within a week after the no-confidence motion comes. He said, "A lot of things will depend on whether the partition will continue for the next 13 days or they become united. After this, a comprehensive consultation will be needed in other parties as well. Because what will happen next, It is not clear."
Many Nepal Communist Party leaders were divided into two groups at the time of dissolution of Parliament, but after the court order, they are advocating for the party to unite.
However, Prachanda, leader of the anti-Nepal Communist faction, told the BBC Nepali that he had no hope of solidarity in the party nor any possibility of cooperation with the government led by Prime Minister Oli.
What will be the new alliance?
Bipin Adhikari, who is constitutional affairs expert, is also not expecting any compromise between the two factions of the Nepal Communist Party. He has said that during the meeting of the House, both camps will try to form a coalition government headed by them.
Prime Minister Oli has two options - either to get a confidence vote inside the Parliament or to face a no-confidence motion of the opposition.
Bipin Adhikari said, "The alternative prime minister's talk can emerge during the no-confidence motion vote, the biggest question is that the other faction can make it its prime minister. For example as the Prime Minister of Nepal Prachanda may propose his name, but the Nepali Congress will not have any advantage by helping him. There is also a question as to why the Nepali Congress, a group of massive protests, would like to join the Prachanda-led government? "
The official said, "There have also been reports according to which the current leadership of the Nepali Congress reveals good relations with Oli. In such a situation, Oli can also form a coalition with the Nepali Congress and run the government."
Officials also do not rule out the possibility that Prime Minister Oli can make Nepalese Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba the Prime Minister if needed. He said, "It is also possible that one of these two will be in government and the other will support from outside."
However, before the dissolution of Parliament, Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal, Dahal said that in the future he will not claim the post of Prime Minister.
The opposition's role will be decisive
To elect the Prime Minister in a 275-member Nepali parliament would require the support of 138 members. The Nepal Communist Party had a total of 174 MPs before splitting into two factions. There are reports that 90 of these are now with the Prachanda faction, while around 80 are supporting Oli
Some have not opened their cards yet. In such a situation, it is clear that in the formation of the next government, the role of the Nepali Congress with 63 seats will remain the most important, no matter which faction the government makes.
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