If global oil prices rise further, India will need to cut taxes on petrol and diesel further to reduce inflationary pressures. According to US brokerage firm Goldman Sachs, however, this will have a reverse effect on revenue. If crude oil reaches $105 a barrel by the end of the year, the government will not be able to reduce excise duty further. Brent crude is hovering around $90 a barrel amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Crude oil will reach $100
A group of Wall Street banks, including Goldman, have predicted oil will hit $100 a barrel this year, with global markets firming up. The firm warned that any sudden and swift move towards financial consolidation could stall an early and uneven revival in the Indian economy. The brokerage firm said in a statement that the budget should focus on increasing aggregate demand, especially rural consumption, and invest more in infrastructure.
Goldman Sachs said in a pre-budget remark that the back-to-back waves of the pandemic have made it difficult to reduce government debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. The report suggests a steady reduction in fiscal deficit by reducing it to 0.5 percent in FY 2022-23 and progressively reducing it to 4.5 percent by FY 2025-26.
Allocation for expenses related to the Covid epidemic will be reduced
The brokerage firm believes that even though the allocation for expenses related to the Covid pandemic will be reduced, the government will have to continue with welfare spending and at the same time expect a 12 percent increase in capital expenditure.
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