What is the danger of nuclear attack in the war between Ukraine and Russia?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the military to put its deterrence forces, including those with nuclear weapons, on "special alert" amid ongoing attacks on Ukraine. But what does this mean?

Experts in the West say that this is not yet clear. British officials say that even the language used by Putin is unclear.

Some say Putin was ordered to proceed from the lowest level of alert. However, this also cannot be said with certainty.

Many people took Putin's statement to mean that he just wanted to send a message to the public, that he did not intend to use nuclear weapons because Putin knows that if this happens, Western countries will retaliate. Britain's Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said he believed the announcement was just "rhetorical".

But this also does not mean that there is no risk of nuclear attack. The situation needs to be watched closely.

Was this a new threat?

Putin warned last week that anyone trying to interfere with Russia's plan would face consequences "never seen in history". Putin's statement was seen as a threat to NATO not to launch military operations in Ukraine. However, Putin did not say directly to whom he is giving these warnings.

However, because of increasing tensions with Russia and the possibility of a nuclear attack, NATO has always been clear that it will not send its army to Ukraine. But on Sunday, Putin made a direct threat.

Why is Putin giving new warnings?

Putin has said that the move was taken in response to "offensive statements" being made by Western countries. On Monday, the Kremlin said that there were aggressive statements about Ukraine from officials of Western countries, including Britain's Foreign Minister Liz Truss. Western officials also believe that the new warning may have come because Putin's guesses about Ukraine may have been wrong.

Putin may not have understood how much resistance he would face if he started a war in Ukraine. He also underestimated the extent to which Western countries could be united, from strong reactions to sanctions. Because of this, they are looking for new options.

"These are signs of anger, frustration, and despair," a recently retired British general told me.

The language, understood by US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, is part of Putin's attempt to justify war in Ukraine. They want to claim that Russia is not an aggressor, but is in danger and is trying to defend itself.

In this way, a nuclear alert is just a way of explaining this message to its people. Another aspect is that perhaps Putin is worried about Western plans to give military aid to Ukraine, so he wants to warn Western countries not to do so.

Another reason is that Putin is concerned about the sanctions that he mentioned during his announcement. Putin believes that these sanctions have been imposed to create unrest in Russia and to overthrow his government. However, in the end, Putin's message appears to be a warning to NATO, that there could be dire consequences if it directly engages in the war.

what are the dangers?

Even if it is assumed that Putin was merely threatening and does not intend to use a nuclear weapon yet, there is always a danger that his message may be miscalculated.

According to experts, it is also a matter of concern that Putin is isolated and apart from some of his advisers, he is not in touch with anyone who can tell him the truth. Some fear that their decisions are becoming uncertain.

Some people expect that even if Putin makes a terrible decision, others will not follow his orders. The risk of any nuclear conflict may have increased slightly, but it is still low.

How are western countries responding?

So far, the governments of Western countries have been careful not to make statements or actions that aggravate the controversy.

The US military has its warning alert system related to defense preparedness, which is known as Defcon. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said there was no reason to change its nuclear alert levels at this time.

Britain's nuclear-capable submarines are stationed at sea and that too hardly makes any public statement. For the time being, it seems that these countries intend to see the statements of Russia only as empty threats. These countries do not want to escalate tensions by taking these statements seriously or by taking any action that is provoking Russia.

Western security officials say that this is not a nuclear crisis at the moment and it should not happen in the future.

Will the West know what Russia is doing?

Britain's Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC he had not yet seen any changes in Russia's nuclear weapons activity. Intelligence sources have confirmed that it is being closely monitored.