What will be the effect on India if Russia attacks Ukraine?

Germany's Navy chief Kai Achen Sonber had to resign last week due to a statement made at the Manohar Parrikar Defense Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi on Friday.

But among the things said by the German Navy Chief, it was also said that Russia is an important country and it is necessary for India along with Germany against China. The German Navy Chief's statement is now being seen in the mirror of the Ukraine crisis, the importance of Russia in the context of India.

It is being said that Russian President Vladimir Putin can order an attack on Ukraine at any time. Putin is getting constant warnings from the US, UK, and EU countries. But Putin does not agree and orders the attack, then it will not only affect Europe but will also affect India.

The US has asked Ukraine to return the families of its diplomats. Britain says that if Putin does this then he will have to pay a heavy price. EU countries are also giving such warnings.

In the midst of all this the German navy chief's assertion that the West will need Russia to keep China under control; matters. Experts say that in the event of an attack on Ukraine, Western countries will impose several major sanctions to isolate Russia. US President Biden has also indicated this.

Experts believe that in such a situation, Russia will need China and China can support neighboring Russia to reduce the effect of Western sanctions. China is officially saying so far that the matter should be resolved through dialogue. But he is also supporting that Ukraine should not become a member of NATO.

It is believed that if the countries of the West impose sanctions on Russia, then only China can compensate for it, and in such a situation, China-Russia will grow closer. In such a situation, there is a possibility of an impact on Russia's friendship with India.

India's concern

According to the report of Swedish think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), about 60 percent of India's military supplies come from Russia and this is a very important side. In the case of Ukraine, India cannot take the risk of angering Russia when the soldiers of China and India still face to face in eastern Ladakh.

On the other hand, Europe and America are also important partners of India. The Indian Army gets help from the US Patrol Aircraft in monitoring the India-China border. India buys winter clothing for soldiers from America and Europe. In such a situation, India can neither leave Russia nor the West. Ukraine-Russia crisis is no less than a crisis for India as well.

Amid the Ukraine crisis, if China puts pressure on Russia to stop India's military supplies, then what will Russia do?

"I don't think Russia will attack Ukraine," says Rajan Kumar, associate professor at the Center for Russian and Central Asia Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi. It is not easy for Putin to attack. Russia's economy is largely dependent on the gas supply in Europe. If it attacks, Russia's closeness with China will increase and it will not be good for India. Russia will not stop military supplies, but the strategic partnership with the US in the Indo-Pacific will be affected.

Rajan Kumar says, "When Putin annexed Crimea to Russia in 2014, India's reaction was - Russia has a logical interest in Ukraine and Crimea. India did not even use the word 'annexation'. This time also India's stand will be that it will not come in the middle of the confrontation between the two powers. But sometimes even without coming, you get affected. The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 and China's attack on India both happened simultaneously. The Soviet Union needed China's support. In such a situation, Russia did not support India in difficult times.

It is being said that once again Russia will need China and in such a situation, Russia will not care about relations with India considering its interest. Rajan Kumar says, "It is a difficult time for India. Just as America cannot manage Russia and China simultaneously, in the same way India cannot manage both Russia and America simultaneously under any circumstances.

Rajan Kumar says, "What led to the resignation of the German Navy Chief, there is a feeling in Europe about Russia that there should be good relations with Putin. But America wants to keep Putin's fear in Europe so that NATO's role remains relevant.

India leaning towards Russia

After the Gulf War, America's military intervention increased around the world. These include military interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s. In 1999, NATO bombed the Serbian capital Belgrade. On this basis, Russia has been saying that the NATO alliance is not only for its security. When NATO bombed Belgrade, the Chinese embassy was also affected and China would not have forgotten it.

After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, NATO attacked Afghanistan using Article 5. But America withdrew its bags from Afghanistan last year and President Ashraf Ghani of the government supporting it also fled the country. Experts believe that after America's withdrawal from Afghanistan, a message was sent that the American-ordered world is weakening. Now Putin has successfully carried out military intervention in Kazakhstan and now fears are deepening on Ukraine.

In November 2020, Ukraine had brought a resolution in the United Nations regarding alleged human rights violations in Crimea and India voted against this resolution. America was in support of this proposal. It is obvious that here too India had chosen Russia's side instead of America.

In March 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, Shiv Shankar Menon, who was the National Security Advisor in the then Manmohan Singh government of India, had said, "Russia has a legitimate interest in Crimea". He also supported the merger, while the countries of Europe including America still consider it illegal.

Then Russian President Putin thanked India for its support and said, "I express my gratitude to all those who supported Russian action in Crimea. I am thankful to China, where the leadership supported Russia's move into Crimea. We greatly appreciate India's restraint and impartiality."

How will India be affected?

If there is a military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, then Western countries will impose sanctions on Russia. In such a situation, Russia can cut gas supply to Europe. It will have a bearing on the real oil price. The Donbas area of ​​Ukraine is the most important in the dispute between Russia and Ukraine and is the largest reserve here. In such a situation, Russia will talk about selling oil and gas with China. The global energy market will be affected and the price of oil may rise. In such a situation, it will also affect India.

The Winter Olympics are starting in Beijing on February 4 and Russian President Putin is also going to attend its opening ceremony. During this visit, Putin will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. In December, Putin and Xi Jinping spoke over the phone, and the Chinese leader supported Putin's demand that Ukraine should not join NATO.

Right now Pakistan is also trying to increase bilateral relations with Russia. Since the end of the strategic partnership with America, Pakistan has been engaged in increasing bilateral partnerships with Russia. If the relations between India and Russia are affected due to the Ukraine crisis, then this opportunity is being considered for Pakistan as well. Recently, Pakistani PM has called Russian President Vladimir Putin and invited him to visit Pakistan. If Putin goes to Pakistan, it will be his first visit.