Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar broke ties with the country's largest party BJP and once again joined hands with RJD. Nitish's move was shocking. Nitish became the CM of Bihar for the eighth time, but the BJP was ousted from the power of the state itself. Not only this, but now the tension of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has also arisen in front of him. This is because statistics show that the one with whom Nitish stays, has the upper hand.
In such a situation, the question arises that what such power Nitish has, who, despite having fewer MLAs, remains the same in the CM's chair. The party they want to go with, the same person agrees to come along at one of their gestures. The main reason behind this is the compulsion of the parties because the support of Nitish is a guarantee of 16 percent Kurmi votes in Bihar.
Good governance babu is the guarantee of 16% votes in Bihar
Be it assembly elections or Lok Sabha elections. Nitish Kumar's vote percentage has always been good. If we look at the figures of the Lok Sabha elections held after the bifurcated Bihar, Nitish Kumar has a better track record in the Lok Sabha elections than in the Vidhan Sabha. Except in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, his vote percentage has never been below 22%. Nitish also got 16% votes in the Modi wave of 2014.
Nitish's impact on Bihar's 6% vote share
Nitish Kumar, who comes from the Kurmi community, not only affects 16% of Bihar's vote, but he can also spoil the maths of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The vote of the Kurmi community in UP is around 6 percent. Their influence is in 25 districts of the state. Whereas there are about 48 assembly seats and 8-10 Lok Sabha seats where Kurmi society plays a decisive role.
After SP leader Beniprasad Verma and Apna Dal's Sonilal Patel, no party has any big face from the Kurmi community in UP. BJP is helping Kurmi society with the help of Sone Lal Patel's daughter Anupriya Patel, while Nitish Kumar has established himself as a Kurmi leader in the country. In such a situation, in the coming times, Nitish Kumar alone or in association with Congress would like to make the vote bank of the Kurmi community in UP on his side.
Nitish also has good relations with opposition leaders.
There is an atmosphere of happiness in the opposition after Nitish Kumar joined the Grand Alliance. The reason for this is that Nitish has good relations with leaders of other states. Nitish has good relations with West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao, Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik, and senior Karnataka leader HD Deve Gowda. This is the reason why the opposition has become stronger after Nitish joined the Grand Alliance. In such a situation, if the opposition contests the Lok Sabha elections together in 2024, then Nitish Kumar will strengthen the opposition in most states with the help of the Kurmi vote bank.
Why was the BJP not wanting to leave?
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, as soon as Nitish Kumar joined hands with the BJP, the NDA's vote share increased by about 18% to 54.34%. NDA got 39 seats out of 40 seats in the state and Congress could win only 1 seat from the opposition. This is the reason why BJP did not want to leave Nitish's side in any case in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
If with the Grand Alliance till the Lok Sabha elections, then…
If Nitish is involved in the Grand Alliance, then the NDA may suffer less damage in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, because if we look at the track record of the last 4 elections, then it is known that whoever has been in the state, except in 2014, except in 2014, it has won the NDA. The party bell is on. As Rabri Devi was the CM in 2004, the UPA bagged 29 seats out of 40. In 2009, when Nitish stayed with the NDA, he got 32 seats. NDA got 39 seats after going with him again in 2019.
If once again there will be a mobilization of backward, very backward, and Dalit votes in the state. Due to this, the condition of the BJP can be like 2015.
If fought alone, 16.04% are now with the Grand Alliance
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, JDU fought alone and managed to get 16.04% of the votes. Then the party got 2 seats and NDA won 31 seats by getting 36.48% votes in the Modi wave, but BJP knows that they got such a big victory when the contest was triangular. Now Nitish will fight alone again, there are few such chances. Reason - This time there is a grand alliance with them. Tejashwi of RJD himself has said that whatever Nitish Ji wants in the grand alliance will happen.
Also know the impact of assembly elections
The figures of the last assembly elections are also not much different. If we look at the figures, it is known that there is a slight increase in the vote share of the parties that go with Nitish Kumar, but there is a huge increase in the seats.
For example, look at the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections. In 2015, Nitish Kumar fought the election together with Lalu Yadav and Congress. Then the Grand Alliance (JDU+RJD+Congress) got 41.84% of the votes and the seats reached 178. At the same time, NDA was reduced to 58 seats after getting 34.59% votes, but in 2020 as soon as BJP joined hands with Nitish Kumar, NDA managed to win 125 seats with a 37.26% vote share. Whereas, the vote share of the Grand Alliance (RJD+Congress+CPI+CPIM+ML) was only 0.23% less than the NDA, but it reduced the seats by 15.
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