India-US Trade Deal may be sealed this month, will it no longer be affected by Trump's tariffs?

India and the US are working hard to finalise a beneficial trade deal by the end of this month.

The deal will be under the bilateral framework decided on March 29. Hindustan Times quoted sources as saying that the deal may increase energy purchases between the two countries, but it will not prevent any country from buying oil and gas from a third country of its choice.

The two countries finalised the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the bilateral trade agreement (BTA) during the first in-person talks in New Delhi on March 29. Subsequently, on April 22, US Vice President JD Vance officially announced the TOR during his visit to India and described it as an "important step towards a final agreement" on exports.

An interim agreement may be announced.

The TOR is an agreed roadmap for BTA talks between the two countries. Under this, five in-person talks and several virtual discussions have occurred.

In these discussions, both sides have reached such a consensus that an interim agreement can be announced. A source said, "We are currently negotiating in virtual mode and the remaining differences are expected to be resolved when the US team comes to India in August." The US negotiating team will reach New Delhi on August 24, and the sixth round of talks will begin on August 25. According to reports, some concrete results may emerge by the end of this round, even though US President Donald Trump has recently made sharp statements against India and threatened tariffs. How much energy does India import? On July 30, Trump discussed a 25% tariff on Indian goods and undeclared duty on buying oil from Russia on Truth Social. This was in response to India's policy of protecting its agriculture, dairy, and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) from US imports. Apart from this, Trump also expressed displeasure over India importing one-third of its crude oil from Russia. On July 31, he said on Truth Social, "I don't care what India does to Russia, let them sink with their dead economies."

According to a February 6, 2025, report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 39% of India's total crude oil and condensate imports in 2023 were from Russia, 19% from Iraq, 16% from Saudi Arabia, 5% from the United Arab Emirates, and 4% from the US. India imported 4.5 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in 2023.

'India will continue to buy oil from Russia...'

The report said that after sanctions on Russia by the US and the European Union in 2022, India started buying cheap crude oil from Russia, increasing imports sixfold to 740,000 barrels per day. India imports more than 87% of its crude oil needs. It is worth noting that India is the third-largest oil importer in the world.

Another source said, "Cheap and reliable energy supply is the priority for India's energy security. Cheap oil from Russia meets this need. We import energy from 39 countries, and recently imports from America have increased, which may increase further in the future. But imports from Russia will not stop under any external pressure."