The fear of Reciprocal Tariff is still a little uncertain but comparatively seems to be calming down a little. Donald Trump government realized in just a week that reciprocal tariff is a weapon that can hurt the American economy. Due to internal pressure, the Trump government has currently banned reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China for 90 days.
Experts believe that it will be difficult for it to come back again. At least America will not make a decision again in this form. After the way the market has fallen at the global level in the last few days and uncertainty has spread, it is being felt in America that America can also get caught in the vicious cycle of recession along with inflation. The stock market can be destroyed and the whole world can turn against America on the trade front.
America is the largest importer of consumer goods.
America is the largest importer of all types of consumer goods, from food to everyday items. The service sector has a share of 88 percent in the US economy. Agriculture has a 1.5-2 percent share while the remaining 8-9 percent share is of manufacturing. In such a situation, America cannot immediately fulfill the needs of its citizens from the production done in the country. It takes years to develop the supply chain and till then the Americans have to bear the brunt of inflation.
Even if garment, footwear, and electronics factories are set up, the goods produced will be sold at a higher price due to the high salaries of the residents. As soon as the reciprocal duty was announced on April 2, goods became expensive in America, the stock market collapsed, and the industrialists there were seen to be in trouble. The matter reached such an extent that American importers started talking about reducing the export prices by 15-20 percent, which would have been difficult for companies of many countries. That is, the income of the importers there was going to decrease. There was pressure to postpone this decision not only from the opposition Republicans but also from the people close to Trump in the government.
Trump imposed a reciprocal tariff on China in 2018 as well.
Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) and former foreign trade officer who played an important role in free trade agreements with various countries, said that as soon as reciprocal tariffs were imposed, people in America took to the streets. The economy there was in danger. Trump had imposed reciprocal tariffs in 2018 as well, but then it was imposed only on China. This time it was imposed on the whole world and given the results, reciprocal tariffs had to be postponed within a week.
He says that I do not think Trump will try to bring back reciprocal tariffs again. If some countries retaliate against the US over reciprocal tariffs or protest, then a small amount of tariffs can be imposed against them.
Reciprocal tariffs likely in India are low.
According to Srivastava, there is no possibility of reciprocal tariffs coming back on India again. The US is entering into a free trade agreement (FTA) with India. But the way America is trying to enter into a trade agreement with India in the agricultural sector seems difficult. Instead, India can get complete freedom from reciprocal duty forever by making its duty on industrial goods zero and this will also benefit India in trade.
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